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“And then there is Europe,” he mused, referring to theories that European bankers want to blunt the rise in interest rates being engineered by the Fed.

But Mr. Porcelli dismisses pretty much all such theories. His own pet answer is that traders themselves have caused the unusual surge in demand for Treasurys and the fall in interest rates through various maneuvers in response to the Fed’s change of direction this year. He expects interest rates to resume their historic pattern of rising later this year, when all the trader positioning and maneuvering has been “fully flushed out” of the market.