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Topic - Christian R. Grose
Voters trying to predict how candidates will vote on the economy may want to look beyond party ID or interest-group scorecards. The real tell may be their investment portfolios, according to a just-released analysis of one of the key votes of President Obama's first term.
"Clearly, the value of investments and exposure to the market made legislators more likely to support the debt limit," Mr. Grose said. "It appears that financial self-interest and the hope of preserving one's equity holdings, along with party constituency and ideology, played a role in the debt limit vote."
"The implication of these results is that fear of personal financial loss through a stock market crash was a factor for many members who voted to increase the debt limit," said Mr. Grose in his 37-page paper, "Risk and Roll Calls: How Legislators' Personal Finances Shape Congressional Decisions," which was posted Feb. 18 on the Social Science Research Network.