"From the start, the 2010 campaign has had a sharper ideological tone than in the past. The tilting toward the out-party may thus have been realized earlier than in the past," he wrote. "It also is possible that an unusually conservative Republican campaign could dampen the expected shift toward the Republicans. If either of these possibilities is true, and the polls remain unchanged through November, the Democrats actually could have the edge come Election Day."
Dartmouth University's Joseph Bafumi said he expects Republicans to win about 53 percent of the total House vote.