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Independent voices from the The Washington Times Communities
Topic - Phillip Tetlock
According to research on the psychology and efficacy of predictions, long-term expert predictions have been found to be about as accurate as monkeys tossing darts at a board labeled with potential future outcomes. And yet forecasting remains a growth industry, in both the intelligence community and televised political punditry.
"We're making progress in that direction," he said. "Our forecasters are gradually becoming better calibrated. How far can they can go? Nobody knows for sure."
"In the short term, we can beat the dart-throwing chimp by pretty good margins," said Phillip Tetlock, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania and author of "Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It?