ACC tournament scenarios

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Time for some home-made ACC tournament scenarios.

Sounds fun, right?

First the basics for Maryland. The Terps will be the No. 7 or No. 8 seed. Get a win or a Virginia Tech loss, and they’ll be No. 7. If neither result falls their way, they’ll be No. 8.

In addition, they’ll play either Miami or N.C. State in the first round. Get the No. 7 seed, and it’s the Miami-N.C, State loser from this weekend. At No. 8, it’s the Miami-N.C. State winner.

Sounds simple.

The rest of this, though, isn’t. So hold your breath and wade through the scenarios if you so choose, and feel free to let me know if there’s a screwup. It’s late at night, and chances are there’s one miscue in this thing:

NORTH CAROLINA (26-3, 12-3)

* Will be the No. 1 seed with a victory over Duke

* Will be the No. 1 seed with a loss to Duke AND a Wake Forest loss.

If there is a tie between Wake Forest and Clemson for third place, North Carolina (1-1) will hold a better record against those teams than Duke (1-2).

If there is a tie between Wake Forest, Clemson and Florida State for third place, North Carolina (2-1) will hold a better record against those teams than Duke (3-2).

* Will be the No. 2 seed with a loss to Duke AND a Wake Forest win to clinch third place; Duke was 1-1 against Wake Forest, while North Carolina was 0-1.

DUKE (25-5, 11-4)

* Will be the No. 1 seed with a win at North Carolina AND a Wake Forest win; Duke was 1-1 against Wake Forest, while North Carolina was 0-1.

* Will be the No. 2 seed with a win at North Carolina AND a Wake Forest loss (see above in North Carolina section).

* Will be the No. 2 seed with a loss at North Carolina AND a Wake Forest loss.

* Will be the No. 3 seed with a loss at North Carolina AND a Wake Forest win; the teams split two regular-season games, and Wake Forest will take the No. 2 seed by virtue of going 1-0 against North Carolina while Duke went 0-2.

WAKE FOREST (23-5, 10-5)

* Will be the No. 2 seed with a win over Clemson AND a Duke loss to North Carolina; the teams split two regular-season games, and Wake Forest will take the No. 2 seed by virtue of the “best victory” tiebreak (North Carolina).

* Will be the No. 3 seed with a win over Clemson AND a Duke win at North Carolina.

* Will be the No. 3 seed in the case with a loss to Clemson AND a Florida State loss to Virginia Tech. Wake Forest will either own the best victory (North Carolina) or a 2-1 record against North Carolina and Duke compared to Clemson’s 1-1 record against North Carolina and Duke.

* Will be the No. 3 seed in the case of a loss to Clemson AND a Florida State victory against Virginia Tech. In the three-team mini-group, Wake Forest (2-1) and Florida State (2-1) will best Clemson (1-3). Wake Forest will then best Florida State based on 86-63 victory on Feb. 14.

FLORIDA STATE (22-8, 9-6)

* Will be the No. 4 seed with a victory over Virginia Tech. Florida State loses all tiebreaks for the No. 3 seed to Wake Forest, but holds all head-to-head tiebreaks on Clemson based on regular-season sweep.

* Will be the No. 4 seed with a loss to Virginia Tech AND a Clemson loss at Wake Forest

* Will be the No. 5 seed with a loss to Virginia Tech AND a Clemson win at Wake Forest AND a Boston College loss to Georgia Tech.

* Will be the No. 6 seed with a loss to Virginia Tech AND a Clemson win at Wake Forest AND a Boston College win against Georgia Tech. Boston College would win head-to-head tiebreak based on 72-67 victory on Feb. 24.

CLEMSON (23-6, 9-6)

* Will be the No. 4 seed with a win at Wake Forest AND a Florida State loss to Virginia Tech.

* Will be the No. 5 seed with a win at Wake Forest AND a Florida State victory against Virginia Tech.

* Will be the No. 5 seed with a loss at Wake Forest AND a Florida State victory against Virginia Tech AND a Boston College victory against Georgia Tech.Clemson holds head-to-head tiebreaker against Boston College based on 87-77 loss on Feb. 10.

* Will be the No. 6 seed with a loss at Wake Forest AND a Florida State loss against Virginia Tech AND a Boston College victory against Georgia Tech.

BOSTON COLLEGE (20-10, 8-7)

* Boston College cannot be the No. 4 seed. In a three-way minigroup with Clemson and Florida State, Florida State (2-1) bests Boston College (1-1) and Clemson (1-2), leaving the Eagles as the No. 5 seed.

* Boston College will be the No. 5 seed with a victory against Georgia Tech AND a Florida State loss to Virginia Tech.

* Boston College will be the No. 6 seed with a loss to Georgia Tech OR a Florida State victory against Virginia Tech.

* Boston College would lose a head-to-head tiebreaker with Clemson based on an 87-77 loss on Feb. 10.

MARYLAND (18-11, 7-8)

* Maryland cannot earn the No. 6 seed; the Terps lose a head-to-head tiebreaker with Boston College based on 76-67 loss on Jan. 27. In a three-way minigroup with Boston College and Virginia Tech, Boston College (2-1) bests both Maryland (1-1) and Virginia Tech (1-2).

* Maryland will be the No. 7 seed with a victory at Virginia OR a Virginia Tech loss to Florida State.

* Maryland will be the No. 8 seed with a loss at Virginia AND a Virginia Tech victory against Florida State.

* Maryland cannot fall to the No. 9 seed based on “best victory” tiebreaker (see Miami section below).

VIRGINIA TECH  (17-12, 7-8)

* Will be the No. 7 seed with a victory over Florida State AND a Maryland loss at Virginia. The Hokies cannot be the No. 6 seed; they split two games with Boston College, but the Eagles will possess the best victory whether Duke or North Carolina wins the conference.

* Will be the No. 8 seed with a loss to Florida State OR a Maryland victory at Virginia. Virginia Tech loses the head-to-head tiebreak with Maryland based on 83-73 loss on Feb. 14. Virginia Tech wins all tiebreaks with Miami (see below).

MIAMI (17-11, 6-9)

* Will be the No. 9 seed with a victory over N.C. State; the Hurricanes would lose a head-to-head tiebreak to Virginia Tech (0-1), would lose a tiebreak to Maryland based on the Terrapins’ best victory (North Carolina), and would lose a three-way tiebreak involving a mini-group of Maryland (2-1), Virginia Tech (1-1) and Miami (1-2).

* Will be the No. 10 seed with a loss to N.C. State.

N.C. STATE (16-12, 6-9)

* Will be the No. 9 seed with a victory over Miami; the Wolfpack would lose all tiebreakers to both Maryland (0-1 head-to-head) and Virginia Tech (0-1 head-to-head)

* Will be the No. 10 seed with a loss to Miami

VIRGINIA (9-17, 3-12)

* Will be the No. 11 seed regardless of this weekend’s outcomes; Cavaliers win the head-to-head tiebreaker with Georgia Tech based on 88-84 victory on Dec. 28

GEORGIA TECH (11-17, 2-13)

* Will be the No. 12 seed regardless of this weekend’s outcomes; Yellow Jackets lose the head-to-head tiebreaker with Virginia based on 88-84 victory on Dec. 28

Patrick Stevens

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