The Nationals have already told us that Stephen Strasburg (Tommy John Surgery, Class of 2010) will be on an innings limit this season. And since teammate Jordan Zimmermann was in the same situation last year, it’s generally assumed that Strasburg will pitch about the same number of innings – in Zimmermann’s case, 161.1.
Which raises the question: What kind of production can the Nats’ expect from their ace right hander in less than a full season? (Zimmermann went 8-11 with less-than-generous run support.) Or better still, what are the best numbers put up by starting pitchers in 161.1 or fewer innings – in, say, the last 25 years?
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To answer this, I limited my research to guys who had started at least 20 games (thereby weeding out anybody who might have spent a fair amount of time in the bullpen). Here are the hurlers since ‘87 who had the most victories while not going over the 161.1-inning limit:
● Ken Hill, Expos, 1994 – 16-5 record in 154.2 innings (23 starts).
● Jeriome Robertson, Astros, 2002 – 15-9 record in 160.2 innings (31 starts).
● Ricky Nolasco, Marlins, 2010 – 14-9 record in 157.2 innings (26 starts).
● Noah Lowry, Giants, 2007 – 14-8 record in 156 innings (26 starts).
● Dontrelle Willis, Marlins, 2003 – 14-6 record in 160.2 innings (27 starts).
● Kaz Ishii, Dodgers, 2002 – 14-10 record in 154 innings (28 starts).
● Roy Oswalt, Astros, 2001 – 14-3 record in 141.2 innings (20 starts).
● Jose Mercedes, Orioles, 2000 – 14-7 record in 145.2 innings (20 starts).
● Ben McDonald, Orioles, 1994 – 14-7 record in 157.1 innings (24 starts).
That’s right, Ken Hill – of this very same Expos/Nationals franchise – is the starter who racked up the most wins in 161.1 or fewer innings. The reason he pitched only 154.2 innings that season, of course, is that the players went on strike in August … and didn’t return until the following April. (The same, you’ll note, goes for McDonald). Also, let’s not forget: Hill finished second in the NL Cy Young voting that year behind the Braves’ Greg Maddux.
A total of 59 pitchers, by the way, had a season in which they threw 161.1 or fewer innings, had a minimum of 20 starts and won 12-plus games. So you’d think 12 wins would be a reasonable goal for Strasburg – especially if the Nats’ bats give him more help than they gave Zimmermann. We’ll have to see about that, though.
Some other numbers Stephen can shoot for in his shortened season (put up by pitchers who – this is your last reminder – logged 161.1 or fewer innings and 20 or more starts):
Most Strikeouts
181 Rich Harden, A’s/Cubs, 2008 (148 innings, 25 starts)
178 Brandon Morrow, Blue Jays, 2010 (146.1 innings, 26 starts)
171 Rich Harden, Cubs, 2009 (141 innings, 26 starts)
169 Brandon Beachy, Braves, 2011 (141.2 innings, 25 starts)
167 Hideo Nomo, Dodgers/Mets, 1998 (157.1 innings, 28 starts)
ERA+
212 Rich Harden, A’s/Cubs, 2008 (148 innings, 25 starts, 2.07 ERA)
171 Bret Saberhagen, Red Sox, 1999 (119 innings, 22 starts, 2.95 ERA)
171 Greg Harris, Padres, 1991 (133 innings, 20 starts, 2.23 ERA)
170 Roy Oswalt, Astros, 2001 (141.2 innings, 20 starts, 2.73 ERA)
169 Johnny Cueto, Reds, 2011 (156 innings, 24 starts, 2.31 ERA)
