- The Washington Times - Saturday, January 19, 2002

Chilly Willy just received some warming news. Neither he, nor any of his penguin pals at the Antarctic, will have to worry about returning from a fishing trip only to find that their icy homes have melted away.
That's because the Antarctic isn't getting any warmer. In fact, scientist Peter Doran and several associates discovered that temperatures on the frozen southern continent have been dropping steadily over the last 30 years.
Their findings, published in the prestigious journal Nature, fly in the face of (or at least steal the lunch from) global-warming activists, who believe with theological fervor that man's industrious activities are causing the Earth to heat up in an apocalyptic fashion. According to their canon, critters in the polar region function as mine canaries, er penguins, of the warming pulse that will soon turn Kansas City into a cinder and Seattle into Surf City.
One of those individuals is George Divoky, who, according to a rather heated article in the New York Times Magazine, has been spending his summers at a remote outpost on the Arctic Circle for 25 years, studying the somewhat less-than-calamitous effects of global warming on seabird populations (they are arriving at their nests a few days earlier each decade). Perhaps Mr. Divoky has an undiagnosed case of climatological biopolar disorder. Or he might have simply gone to the wrong pole.
Those who went to the South Pole weren't sure what to make of their rather chilling findings. After restating the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) prediction that the warming of the Earth should be amplified in the polar regions, their report notes, "Continental Antarctic cooling … poses challenges to models of climate and ecosystem change."
That challenge was not met by Michael Oppenheimer, chief scientist for Environmental Defense, who told a reporter for The Washington Post, "I'd be very careful with this … there is simply not enough data to make a broad statement about all of Antarctica." But if there is not enough data to describe the current climate situation in Antarctica, how is it possible that there is enough data to describe the climate state of not just Antarctica but the entire world, not simply today, but for the next several decades?
There isn't at least not in a form that climate scientists can take in and model out to a complete (or even incomplete) view of climate change. Physicist Willie Soon and astrophysicist Sallie Baliunas recently pointed out in an article for the Frasier Institute that climate modeling, even on the continental level, is a monumental endeavor. Since there are so many variables (many of which are barely, if at all, understood), the errors can be well, chilling.
Until warming models can account for a cooling Antarctica, the global warming hypothesis appears to be all wet.


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