- The Washington Times - Wednesday, January 9, 2002

Try to imagine a world in which people of European ancestry are not only a minority of the world population, but are a beleaguered minority of Europe's and North America's population. Would that spell the end of Western civilization, or would a civilization born in the Judeo-Christian and Greek-Roman societies be carried forward by a predominantly African-Muslim-Hispanic recent immigrant population in Europe and North America?

And, if Western civilization perishes, does that matter to you? What, if anything, can be done? These are the stark questions that face the readers of Pat Buchanan's astonishing new book, "The Death of the West: How Dying Populations and Immigrant Invasions Imperil Our Country and Civilization."

Mr. Buchanan opens this book with a riveting series of national population statistics provided by the authoritative U.N. Population Division. Because the average European woman's birth rate is 1.4 (not counting immigration, it takes 2.1 children per woman to maintain a population level) Europe's population from Iceland to Russia will drop from 728 million in 2000 to only 207 million in the year 2100 a 70 percent drop.

Of Europe's 47 countries, only Muslim Albania is maintaining its population level. In the next 50 years, Germany's population will drop from 82 million to 59 million. By 2100, Russia's population will drop from 147 million to only 80 million. Mr. Buchanan quotes Russian President Vladimir Putin saying recently, "If the present tendency continues, there will be a threat to the survival of the nation."

It is Mr. Buchanan's thesis that the Russian population will have to withdraw to west of the Ural mountains and cede all of Eastern and Southern Russia to China and the growing Muslim states to her south. A quarter of a billion new Chinese will simply occupy and control the great Siberian vastness which is currently populated by only a few million Russians. This Buchanan thesis is currently rocking Russia. He is being interviewed by major Russian media his book is the talk of Moscow and St. Petersburg. It should be the talk of Western Europe and North America, as well.

More important even than the population decline, Mr. Buchanan points out, is the inevitable aging of the populations. For example, even in Catholic Italy, by 2050 only 2 percent of the population will be under 5, while more than 40 percent will be over 65 years old. Overall in Europe in 2050, if they want to keep their current ratio of working-age population to retirees (4.8 to 1), they will have to bring in 1.4 billion emigrants from Africa and the Middle East.

The 600 million remaining Europeans then would be outnumbered more than 2-1 in their own countries. The only alternative would be to either kill off older people (Mr. Buchanan reports that involuntary elderly euthanasia is already permitted in Holland), or reduce their retirees to a bare subsistence level of living if that. After all, without massive immigration there then would not be enough care-givers to even minimally take care of Europe's mostly elderly population.

Keep in mind that the European birth rates continue to go down and unless European women suddenly and implausibly start giving up their lifestyles and stay home to have eight to 10 children, these projections will prove to be too optimistic. But with these probably optimistic U.N. population projections, Mr. Buchanan points out that by 2050, "… the Third World [will add] 100 million people one new Mexico every 15 months. Forty new Mexicos by 2050, while Europe will have lost the equivalent of the entire population of Belgium, Holland, Denmark, Sweden, Norway and Germany."

It seems incredible, but Mr. Buchanan's numbers look solid to me. Europe for 2000 years both the hammer and anvil of our civilization will be a spent force within 50 to 100 years. Or, as Mr. Buchanan puts it: "The cradle of Western Civilization will have become its grave."

The United States is going down the same path but more slowly. And here we get to the burden of Mr. Buchanan's ominous vision. As a result of current American birth and illegal immigration rates, we will be more than 50 percent non-European ancestry by 2050. Thus the critical question is whether we can assimilate the new arrivals into our language, culture, history and collective memory (as we have with new immigrants for 200 years).

This will be the supreme test of our public schools to immerse the new arrivals in the English language, a patriotic appreciation of our history and a life-long commitment to America's received common values of Western civilization.

Not surprisingly, Mr. Buchanan is highly skeptical of that eventuality. He proposes a substantial halt to immigration and deportation of all illegal immigrants. He hopes for a revival of vital Christian faith. And as he first articulated at the Republican Convention in 1992 those who still believe in our traditional values must intellectually and politically fight and win the unavoidable cultural war that is currently being won by the other side.

Although the politically correct will be lavish with their condemnation of this book, for traditional conservative and moderate Americans of all ethnic backgrounds, this book makes it considerably harder to resist the logic of the Buchanan thesis. I will continue to resist but with decreasing expectations of success.

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