- The Washington Times - Friday, September 30, 2005

GENEVA — The World Health Organization moved yesterday to revise alarming predictions that a pandemic stemming from the bird flu virus ravaging parts of Asia could kill as many as 150 million people.

The U.N. health agency was deluged with inquiries after Dr. David Nabarro — named Thursday as the U.N. coordinator for avian and human influenza — cited the number during a press conference at the U.N.’s New York headquarters.

While WHO’s influenza spokesman at the agency’s Geneva headquarters did not say the 150 million prediction was wrong, he emphasized that 7.4 million deaths was a more realistic estimate.

Scientists have made predictions ranging from fewer than 2 million to 360 million. Last year, WHO’s chief for the Asia-Pacific region predicted 100 million deaths. Until now, that was the highest figure publicly mentioned by a WHO official.

“We’re not going to know how lethal the next pandemic is going to be until the pandemic begins,” WHO influenza spokesman Dick Thompson said yesterday.

“You could pick almost any number” until then, he said, adding that WHO “can’t be dragged into further scaremongering.”

Specialists agree there will certainly be another flu pandemic — a new human flu strain that goes global. However, it is unknown when or how bad that global epidemic will be.

It also is unknown whether the H5N1 bird flu strain circulating in Asian poultry now will be the origin of the next pandemic.

Two factors will have a major influence on how many people will die from the next flu pandemic, specialists say. One is the attack rate — the proportion of the population that becomes infected. The other is the death rate, or the proportion of the sick who die.

Normal seasonal flu viruses have an attack rate of between 5 percent and 20 percent, but a death rate of less than 1 percent. Between 250,000 and 500,000 die from flu every year, according to WHO.

Based on evidence from the three pandemics that occurred during the 20th century, scientists have determined that pandemic flu strains tend to infect between 25 percent and 35 percent of the population.

The worst death rate was seen in the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic that killed 2.6 percent of those who got sick, or about 40 million people.

The other two pandemics were gentler. The 1957 one killed 2 million and the most recent, in 1968, killed 1 million.

WHO said yesterday it considers the most likely scenario to be a death toll of between 2 million and 7.4 million people.

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