Sen. Barack Obama‘s campaign says he must win either the Iowa caucuses or New Hampshire’s primary to show black voters influential in ensuing primaries that he’s a legitimate candidate.
Victory in the predominantly white states would energize blacks in early primary states such as South Carolina, where black voters make up nearly half of the Democratic electorate, and help undermine efforts by Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s campaign to lock down black voters historically fond of former President Bill Clinton.
“We have to do well in Iowa and New Hampshire, and if we do, we will win South Carolina,” said Matthew Nugen, national political director for the Illinois Democrat’s campaign.
“No one in the campaign would disagree with the notion that we have to win a state like New Hampshire to do well with black voters in South Carolina and beyond.”
Melissa V. Harris-Lacewell, professor of political science at Princeton University in New Jersey, said black voters don’t trust whites who tell pollsters they would vote for a black candidate.
She noted the 1989 Virginia gubernatorial campaign of L. Douglas Wilder, now the mayor of Richmond. Mr. Wilder had been leading by double digits in polls but won the election by fewer than 7,000 votes in the gubernatorial election.
“So even getting white voters to say to pollsters they will vote for [Mr. Obama] doesn’t counteract fully the apprehension black voters have about his electability,” Ms. Harris-Lacewell said.
Recent polls have showed Mrs. Clinton, New York Democrat, leading Mr. Obama by double digits in New Hampshire and holding a slim lead in Iowa, where former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina also performs well.
In South Carolina, the first major test of appeal to black voters, Mrs. Clinton leads Mr. Obama by 8 percentage points, according to a Rasmussen Reports survey released last week. Among black voters the two are tied — showing just how much work Mr. Obama, who is part black, has to do to win those voters.
“I think black people — as much as they are giving him a hard time right now — are going to vote for Barack, but the problem will be getting black primary voters excited enough to get to the primary,” she said. “He can get 85 percent of the black vote by just keeping his nose clean.”
That is what Mr. Obama is hoping for from South Carolina. Winning the state’s primary on Jan. 29 would provide momentum going into Super Duper Tuesday, on Feb. 5, when more than 20 states will hold primaries.
“He will do well in South Carolina; there is no question about that,” said state Rep. Leon Howard, a Democrat who has endorsed Mr. Edwards.
Mr. Howard, chairman of the South Carolina Legislative Black Caucus, said blacks in his state are interested in issues that are driving their conversations “at the dinner table.”
“I think a lot of the voters are still undecided and are just starting to pay attention, so now is the critical time to come back in and start talking directly to them,” Mr. Howard said.
Mr. Obama was in South Carolina last week and has seven field offices there.
However, like Mr. Wilder, Mr. Obama has been catering to the majority white voters, running a deracialized campaign that leaves black voters interested but not energized.
Ms. Harris-Lacewell said Mr. Obama will have to do something his advisers are telling him not to do in order to counteract a low turnout.
“They have to stop running away from his blackness and embrace it, and that … shows that being a regular black man is American and worthy to lead the country, and that will excite black voters,” she said.
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