Swinging through the electoral map

OPINION:

The travels of Arizona Sen. John McCain offer politically tasty insight into what Republicans are doing while Democrats scratch one another into virtual irrelevance. Clearly, Mr. McCain is on an electoral college tour, unchained, while ego-driven preachers rant and the ensuing racial quagmire of post-Obamamania cynicism sinks in. In this climate, the ornery presumptive Republican presidential nominee blasts forward with unchallenged summertime marketing buoyed by White House crutch and dagger.

The McCain campaign is the vicarious thrill of President Bush attempting to salvage legacy, a lame duck statement that the past eight years really weren’t all that bad — “especially if you vote for a guy not that much unlike me.” As of May 14, (assuming he’s able to complete his schedule given the sour lack of opposition from his left flank), Mr. McCain will have visited some 30 states since March 2008.

A quick glance shows multiple visits to promoted battleground states, where coveted electoral votes are as plenty as Iowa corn near an ethanol distillery. Five visits thus far to Florida — so far from November — translates into a strong bid for 27 electoral votes. An additional five visits to Texas and Pennsylvania, 32 and 21 electoral votes respectively, snags a nice market share of the body politic. Three visits each to Ohio, with 20 electoral votes, and Missouri with its 11 electoral votes, definitely signals a trendy grab for the Midwest. The self-styled “maverick” is best known for riding the independent voice and highhorse until about now. In 2008, Mr. McCain cookie-cutter styles and cuts his campaign very similar to the George W. Bush of 2000 and 2004. These are five states where the President performed solidly enough to claw out wins — there are several small-margin wins (with the exception of Texas), but enough to get him to where he is now.

Other places finding themselves “blessed” with a mild first or second visit include: Alabama, Arizona, the District of Columbia, Connecticut, Kentucky, Louisiana, Arkansas, Georgia, Washington, Oregon, South Carolina, New Jersey, New Hampshire, New York, Utah, Nevada and California. Five of these are considered crucial “swing states,” the so-called “purple” spots where you just don’t know where it’s going to lean or who gets it. What’s important to footnote here is that most of the McCain visits are described as “financial receptions.”

Other curious crumbs of political photo-op include a visit to Alabama’s legendary Edmund Pettus Bridge, site of the historically grim Selma civil-rights march. And like finding Waldo, there’s Mr. McCain again in industrial heart-landed Youngstown, Ohio. He then swerves down to Inez, Ky., for a hometown-boy shout out to native Mike Duncan, current Republican National Committee chair. Tribute tours of New Orleans’ Lower 9th Ward and vestiges of Jim Crow South in Little Rock, Ark., spite that ugly memory of a “nay” vote against the Martin Luther King Jr. federal holiday. Even though African Americans in his state don’t know him, perhaps — he thinks — visits elsewhere can take advantage of black voting resentment in the event Sen. Hillary Clinton clinches the Democratic Party nomination. The mess on the left is hot enough to warrant such a theory as plausible.

What does it all mean? For certain, Mr. McCain is attempting to shore up some base while gaining a head start on the swing states. Greater focus will emerge on the South and Midwest, with an expectation that big gains are possible in Western states saddled with immigration issues. At the same time, recent rhetoric on being the “poor people’s candidate” plays into a larger scheme to attract working-class voters. Whereas in 2000 and 2004, the GOP clearly campaigned on wedge social issues, 2008 will see a move on economic policy gimmicks and flavors of the month.

Still, Mr. McCain needs the base — interesting how Ron Paul and Mike Huckabee could still manage 17 percent and 12 percent, respectively, in Pennsylvania when it’s clear Mr. McCain has it all locked. That’s a signal that he’s got some work to do. Fundraisers in key states also signal a need to fix the Republicans’ troubled state party system, a significant nuisance for a party statistically faced with sour presidential and congressional prospects.

Obviously, on paper, the current electoral map tips Mr. McCain’s direction. That said, he’s being real smart about it. If he can make Minnesota, California, Michigan and Wisconsin competitive, he’s good to go. If Mr. Obama gets the nomination, a white voter “reticence factor” could prove troubling, suddenly making Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, Missouri, New Hampshire, and maybe Georgia, Mississippi and North Carolina, much more competitive. Should Mrs. Clinton win the nomination, there are signs that she’ll basically follow the 2004 Kerry electoral map and hope for miracles through big plays in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. While Democrats are running their primary like it’s the general election, Mr. McCain is pushing full steam ahead to Pennsylvania Avenue.

Sen. Peter C. Groff, a Democrat, is president of the Colorado Senate. He is founding executive director of the University of Denver’s Center for African American Policy and founding publisher of Blackpolicy.org. Charles D. Ellison is senior fellow at the center and chief editor of Blackpolicy.org. They host the radio show “Blackpolicy.org.”