The inside track can save ground

LOUISVILLE, Ky. — By thoroughbred standards, Big Brown was a big bargain when Paul Pompa Jr. purchased him for $190,000 13 months ago.

Days after Big Brown won his first race by 111/4 lengths at Saratoga last Labor Day weekend, Pompa sold 75 percent ownership to IEAH Stable for a reported $3 million.

Just as Pompa quickly turned a profit, IEAH can start doing the same today if Big Brown continues to perform like he has in his first three career races, all wins by a combined 29 lengths.

Big Brown is the morning-line 3-1 favorite for today’s Kentucky Derby (6:04 p.m.) based on his record and the relative mediocrity of his 19 rivals.

But don’t place the blanket of roses on his back just yet.

Big Brown’s chances could be compromised early in the race when he tries to break out of post 20 alongside Recapturetheglory (18) and Gayego (19).

Those trainers fear a slow break and a wide trip around Churchill Downs, sacrificing valuable track position.

Trainers of horses who close or run in mid-pack fear a great break where the three speed horses cut their runners off.

“It’s odd the way the race sets up,” Adriano trainer Graham Motion said. “What worries me a little bit is that everybody’s going to be cutting over pretty quick. Hopefully, we’ll have plenty of room inside of us.”

Adriano starts from post 15. Although there is plenty of time — a little more than a quarter-mile — before the first turn, the jockeys of the three outside colts want to get to the rail pronto. They could break so well and move over so fast that they cut off several horses, including Colonel John, who will break from post 10 and who trainer Eoin Harty would like to see in mid-pack.

“If they break well, it’s obvious they’re only going to go one way and cross over in front of the field to make it to the first turn in front,” he said. “Hopefully, we can avoid all that carnage because you know that if those speed horses don’t break as fast as they like and are hustled to the lead, there might be a logjam going into the first turn. The race is going to be dictated by what happens on that first turn.”

Big Brown has done the dictating in each of his first three starts. He won wire to wire in two of the races. He was only as far back as third place in the other.

“Talent wise, I’ve had very, very few like him,” trainer Rick Dutrow said. “I wish I had more like him. I don’t know what to expect from him because he’s just run unbelievable every time he’s ever run.”

The potential problem: Big Brown hasn’t run much. The last horse to win the Derby with only three previous starts was the filly Regret in 1915. The last horse to win from post 20 was Clyde Van Dusen in 1929 … before mechanical starting gates were used instead of walk-up starts.

Jockey Kent Desormeaux, a Derby winner with Real Quiet and Fusaichi Pegasus, isn’t concerned about the starting post.

“For me, it works out perfect because I can cat-bird whoever leads me into the first turn,” Desormeaux said. “If not, when the doors open, I’m just going to feel it. Does pace make race? Yes, but my horse’s pace, his ultimate maximum cruising speed, is where I want to set him up at. That’s something I have to feel.”

Desormeaux knows going 45-plus seconds for the opening half-mile — as the colt has done in the last two starts — would likely mean he will get passed down the lane today.

“I’m definitely going to rein him in or he’s going to 21 [seconds in first quarter] and 44 [seconds for opening half-mile],” he said.

If Big Brown is in the lead with a furlong remaining today, his likely competition will come from Colonel John and Pyro. Other possible contenders are Gayego because he made the synthetic to real dirt transition by winning the Arkansas Derby; Tale of Ekati because he has won a two-turn race; and Eight Belles because she’s the first filly to run in the Derby since 1999.

While not long on talent, the Derby is long on value for the bettors. The field has combined to run only 13 Grade I races this year (winning four) and holds only a lifetime winning percentage of .484.

Most of the trainers admit that if Big Brown runs his race, everybody else is running for second money.

“He just goes out there and puts himself right in the game,” Dutrow said. “I think you’re looking at something here where talent makes up for experience.”