OPINION:
The Labor Department reported Friday that total nonfarm payroll employment declined in April for the fourth month in a row. (Private-sector nonfarm employment has now fallen five consecutive months.) Employer payrolls fell by a relatively modest 20,000 jobs last month. That was one-fourth of the average of 80,000 jobs that were lost each month during the first quarter, when the U.S. economy cumulatively shed 240,000 jobs.
Since the end of World War II, the U.S. economy has suffered 10 recessions. Nonfarm payroll employment has never declined four months in a row without being associated with a recession. In fact, during one recession (December 1969-November 1970), there were only three consecutive months in which nonfarm employment declined. Moreover, in one of the steepest and longest postwar recessions (November 1973-March 1975), nonfarm payrolls actually increased during the first nine months of the downturn.
The Labor Department reported that the economy’s goods-producing sector shed 110,000 jobs last month, including 46,000 jobs in manufacturing and 61,000 in construction. Partially offsetting these declines were the 90,000 jobs created last month in the service sector, including government, where employment has increased during 21 of the last 22 months.
During the Bush administration, manufacturing has now lost more than 3.5 million jobs, and there is no end in sight. Indeed, with the consumption of durable goods (autos, washing machines and other goods expected to last three years or longer) falling by an annual rate of more than 6 percent during the first quarter and with the consumption of non-durable goods (clothes, groceries, books, etc.) declining by 1.3 percent as inventories began piling up, there is a strong likelihood that manufacturing jobs will continue to plunge. Meanwhile, as residential investment continues to plummet and as business investment in structures fell 2.5 percent last quarter after rising by an average of 8.8 percent during the previous three quarters, it is clear that construction jobs will also continue to be shed.
With the net loss of 20,000 jobs in April, the Bush administration and congressional Republicans will no longer be able to assert, as they endlessly have for more than half a year, that nonfarm employment has increased by more than 8 million jobs since August 2003, the month they cherry-picked for self-serving reasons. For the record, private-sector nonfarm employment has increased by 3.75 million jobs since the beginning of 2001 for a monthly increase (42,636) that is less than 20 percent the monthly expansion (220,250) of private-sector employment in the previous eight years (1993-2000).
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