- Associated Press - Monday, December 1, 2014

The Institute for Supply Management, formerly the Purchasing Management Association, began formally surveying its membership in 1931 to gauge business conditions.

The Creighton Economic Forecasting Group uses the same methodology as the national survey to consult supply managers and business leaders. Creighton University economics professor Ernie Goss oversees the report.

The overall index ranges between 0 and 100. Growth neutral is 50, and a figure greater than 50 indicates an expanding economy over the next three to six months.

Here are the state-by-state results for November:

Arkansas: The overall index for Arkansas slumped to 43.7 from October’s 49.3. Components of the index in November were new orders at 33.7, production or sales at 41.1, delivery lead time at 55.4, inventories at 38.4 and employment at 49.7. During the national recession, December 2007 to June 2009, Arkansas lost almost 20,000 of its manufacturing jobs. Since the recovery began in July 2009 the state has regained only 1,200 of those jobs. “Our surveys of businesses in Arkansas indicate the state’s manufacturing employment will not return to pre-recession levels until beyond 2015,” said Goss.

Iowa: Iowa’s overall index in November dropped for the fifth month in a row, hitting 50.1 last month from 51.4 in October. Components of the index were new orders at 45.2, production or sales at 40.4, delivery lead time at 66.1, employment at 57.7 and inventories at 41.2. During the national recession Iowa lost almost 28,000 manufacturing jobs. Since the recovery began in July 2009 the state has regained more than 14,000 of those jobs. “Our surveys of businesses in Iowa indicate the state’s manufacturing employment will return to pre-recession levels in the last quarter of 2015,” Goss said.

Kansas: The overall index for Kansas dipped to 62.2 from October’s 62.4. Components of the index were new orders at 70.3, production or sales at 72.1, delivery lead time at 49.3, employment at 55.9 and inventories at 63.4. During the national recession Kansas lost more than 21,000 manufacturing jobs. Since the recovery began in July 2009 the state has regained only 3,700 of the lost manufacturing jobs. “Our surveys of businesses in Kansas indicate the state’s manufacturing employment will not return to pre-recession levels until beyond 2015,” said Goss.

Minnesota: November survey results mark the 24th straight month that Minnesota’s overall index has remained above growth neutral. The November index dropped to a still solid 58.0 from October’s 63.7. Components of the index were new orders at 61.3, production or sales at 63.7, delivery lead time at 56.1, inventories at 58.5 and employment at 50.6. During the national recession Minnesota lost almost 31,000 manufacturing jobs. Since the recovery began in July 2009 the state has regained almost 20,000 of those lost jobs. “Our surveys of businesses in Minnesota indicate the state’s manufacturing employment will return to pre-recession levels in the latter half of 2015,” Goss said.

Missouri: The overall index for Missouri dropped to 54.9 in November from 57.1 in October. Components were new orders at 55.3, production or sales at 58.6, delivery lead time at 53.5, inventories at 57.6 and employment at 49.7. During the national recession Missouri lost almost 38,000 manufacturing jobs. Since the recovery began in July 2009 Missouri has regained only 2,800 of those jobs. “Our surveys of businesses in the state indicate the manufacturing employment will not return to pre-recession levels until beyond 2015,” said Goss.

Nebraska: For the 11th straight month, Nebraska’s overall index remained above growth neutral 50.0. The November index rose to 51.6 from 50.3 in October. Components of the index were new orders at 52.2, production or sales at 49.9, delivery lead time at 52.1, inventories at 53.3 and employment at 50.4. During the national recession Nebraska lost more than 8,000 manufacturing jobs. Since the recovery began in July 2009 the state has regained almost 2,700 of those jobs. “Our surveys of businesses in the state indicate Nebraska’s manufacturing employment will not return to pre-recession levels until beyond 2015,” Goss said.

North Dakota: North Dakota’s overall index fell to 53.4 in November, compared with 54.8 in October. Components of the overall index were new orders at 51.6, production or sales at 52.8, delivery lead time at 55.1, employment at 55.5 and inventories at 51.9. During the national recession North Dakota lost 2,400 manufacturing jobs. Since the recovery began in July 2009 the state has regained almost 1,800 of those lost jobs. “Our surveys of businesses in North Dakota indicate the state’s manufacturing employment will return to pre-recession levels in the first half of 2015,” said Goss.

Oklahoma: After dropping below growth neutral for October, the overall Oklahoma index jumped to 54.5 in November from 48.0 in October. Components of the index were new orders at 66.3, production or sales at 63.3, delivery lead time at 38.7, inventories at 55.5 and employment at 48.5. During the national recession Oklahoma lost more than 21,000 manufacturing jobs. Since the recovery began in July 2009 the state has regained more than 16,000 of those jobs. “Our surveys of businesses in Oklahoma indicate the state’s manufacturing employment will return to pre-recession levels in the second half of 2015,” Goss said.

South Dakota: South Dakota’s overall index dipped to 51.5 from 51.8 in October. Components of the overall index for November were new orders at 44.2, production or sales at 62.8, delivery lead time at 53.5, inventories at 44.3 and employment at 52.6. During the national recession South Dakota lost 4,700 manufacturing jobs. Since the recovery began in July 2009 the state has added more than 5,300 manufacturing jobs. “Our surveys of businesses in South Dakota indicate the state’s manufacturing employment will continue to expand to record levels in 2015,” said Goss.

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Online:

Creighton Economic Forecasting Group: http: //www.outlook-economic.com


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