- Associated Press - Wednesday, October 1, 2014

The Institute for Supply Management, formerly the Purchasing Management Association, began formally surveying its membership in 1931 to gauge business conditions.

The Creighton Economic Forecasting Group uses the same methodology as the national survey to consult supply managers and business leaders. Creighton University economics professor Ernie Goss oversees the report.

The overall index ranges between 0 and 100. Growth neutral is 50, and a figure greater than 50 indicates an expanding economy over the next three to six months.

Here are the state-by-state results for September:

Arkansas: The state’s overall index advanced to a weak 47.0 from August’s 45.6. Components of the index were new orders at 47.9, production or sales at 44.1, delivery lead time at 55.1, inventories at 36.9, and employment at 50.9. “Even with durable goods manufacturers continuing to expand in the state, nondurable goods producers and value added service firms detailed pullbacks for the state,” Goss said. “Surveys over the past several months point to much slower economic growth for the fourth quarter of 2014.” Goss said that for the last year through August, government data show that average weekly wages in Arkansas have fallen by about 1 percent. The survey indicates wage growth will remain weak and potentially negative for the last quarter of 2014, Goss said.

Iowa: The overall index for August fell to a tepid 51.5, from 58.3 in August. It was the third consecutive month the reading has declined. Components of the index were new orders at 48.3, production or sales at 45.1, delivery lead time at 62.4, employment at 52.2, and inventories at 49.5. “Iowa’s manufacturing sector, both durable and nondurable goods producers, are experiencing much slower growth than recorded earlier in the year,” Goss said. “Weaker grain prices are spilling over into the broader state economy.” Average weekly wages have expanded by 3.1 percent in the last year, Goss said.

Kansas: The overall index expanded to a regional high of 69.7, from 63.8 in August. Components were new orders at 77.9, production or sales at 81.9, delivery lead time at 63.9, employment at 58.1, and inventories at 66.8. “Growth among nondurable goods producers and value added services firms in the state more than offset weaker numbers from durable goods manufacturers,” Goss said. “Construction activity in Kansas continues to advance at a healthy pace.” Average weekly wages expanded by 3.1 percent over the last year, Goss said.

Minnesota: September marks the 22nd straight month the overall index has remained above growth neutral. The index slipped to 66.3 from August’s regional high of 66.9. Components were new orders at 73.6, production or sales at 70.5, delivery lead time at 61.8, inventories at 65.2, and employment at 60.5. “Durable goods producers and nondurable goods manufacturers, including food processors, continue to report very healthy growth,” Goss said. “Firms in the state with ties to vehicle manufacturing are also expanding at a healthy pace.” Average weekly wages in Minnesota have expanded by 2.6 percent over the last year.

Missouri: The overall index declined to 57.7 from August’s 59.2. Components were new orders at 58.3, production or sales at 58.9, delivery lead time at 55.9, inventories at 57.1, and employment at 58.3. “Durable manufacturers, especially vehicle producers, and nondurable goods manufacturers, except for food processors, reported very healthy expansions for the month,” Goss said. Average weekly wages sank by 1.3 percent, the lowest in the region. The survey indicates wage growth will be healthy for the last quarter of 2014, Goss said.

Nebraska: For the ninth straight month, the state’s overall index remained above growth neutral 50, but the September index fell to a tepid 51.8 from August’s 54.8. Components were new orders at 49.6, production or sales at 55.5, delivery lead time at 58.4, inventories at 49.7, and employment at 45.9. “Economic growth for Nebraska will remain positive for the second half of 2014, based on our surveys over the last several months,” Goss said. “Since the national recovery began in July 2009, the manufacturing sector in Nebraska added approximately 5,400 manufacturing jobs for a 5.9 percent job gain. However, for 2014, the state’s durable goods manufacturing firms have added no jobs.”

North Dakota: The overall index climbed to 61.8 from 60.7 in August. Components were new orders at 62.7, production or sales at 58.5, delivery lead time at 72.5, employment at 59.2, and inventories at 56.3. “Economic growth will remain healthy for the second half of 2014 for the state based on our surveys over the last several months,” Goss said. “Since the national recovery began in July 2009, the manufacturing sector in North Dakota added approximately 2,000 manufacturing jobs for an 8.5 percent job gain.” But manufacturing job growth has been stagnant for 2014, Goss said.

Oklahoma: The state’s overall index expanded to a solid 58 from August’s 54. Components were new orders at 65.2, production or sales at 53.2, delivery lead time at 48.5, inventories at 70.4, and employment at 52.7. “Economic growth will remain positive for the second half of 2014 for the state based on our surveys over the last several months,” Goss said. “Since the national recovery began in July 2009, the manufacturing sector in Oklahoma added almost 16,000 manufacturing jobs for a 12.6 percent job gain. Until August, the state’s manufacturing sector had added jobs at a healthy pace for 2014.”

South Dakota: The state’s overall index has been above growth neutral 50 since November 2012, but fell in September to 55 from August’s 58.5. Components were new orders at 56.7, production or sales at 63.8, delivery lead time at 53.5, inventories at 47.3, and employment at 53.5. “Economic growth will remain healthy for the second half of 2014 based on our surveys over the last several months,” Goss said. “Since the national recovery began in July 2009, the manufacturing sector in South Dakota added approximately 6,100 manufacturing jobs for a 16.7 percent job gain.”

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Online:

Creighton Economic Forecasting Group: http: //www.outlook-economic.com


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