- Associated Press - Tuesday, December 1, 2015

The Institute for Supply Management, formerly the Purchasing Management Association, began formally surveying its membership in 1931 to gauge business conditions.

The Creighton Economic Forecasting Group uses the same methodology as the national survey to consult supply managers and business leaders. Creighton University economics professor Ernie Goss oversees the report.

The overall index ranges between 0 and 100. Growth neutral is 50, and a figure greater than 50 indicates an expanding economy over the next three to six months.

Here are the state-by-state results for November:

Arkansas: The state’s overall index dropped to 42.1 in November from 43.6 in October. Components of the index were new orders at 35.3, production or sales at 37.4, delivery lead time at 54.1, inventories at 40.5 and employment at 43.1. Federal data show that over the last 12 months, Arkansas lost 4,000 manufacturing jobs. “Our surveys of supply managers in the state indicate these losses will continue into the first quarter of 2016,” Goss said.



Iowa: The Iowa overall index declined to 42.3 last month from 44.2 in October. Components of the index were new orders at 35.5, production or sales at 37.6, delivery lead time at 54.4, employment at 43.3 and inventories at 40.7. Federal data show that over the past 12 months, Iowa lost 1,300 manufacturing jobs. Our surveys of supply managers in the state indicate this trend will continue into the first quarter of 2016,” said Goss.

Kansas: The state’s overall index for November rose to a weak 42.6 from October’s 41.7. Components of the index were new orders at 35.8, production or sales at 37.9, delivery lead time at 54.8, employment at 43.6 and inventories at 41.0. Federal data show that since January of this year, Kansas lost 2,000 manufacturing jobs. “Our surveys of supply managers in the state indicate these losses will continue into the first quarter of 2016,” he said.

Minnesota: The November index dropped to 41.1 from October’s 42.7. Components of the index were new orders at 34.5, production or sales at 36.5, delivery lead time at 52.8, inventories at 39.5 and employment at 42.0. Federal data show that over the past 12 months, Minnesota lost 800 manufacturing jobs. “Our surveys of supply managers in the state point to slight losses into the first quarter of 2016 as manufacturing exports slide even lower,” said Goss.

Missouri: The state’s overall index plunged to 41.9 from October’s 50.1. Components of the index were new orders at 45.6, production or sales at 39.5, delivery lead time at 41.4, inventories at 43.2 and employment at 42.0. Federal data show that over the past 12 months, Missouri added 3,000 vehicle manufacturing jobs, but lost 1,400 manufacturing jobs outside of vehicle production. “I expect slight manufacturing losses into the first quarter of 2016,” he said.

Nebraska: The state’s overall index rose to 43.6 in November, compared with 40.1 in October. Components of the index were new orders at 35.0, production or sales at 38.5, delivery lead time at 49.0, inventories at 40.9 and employment at 42.1. Federal data show that over the past 12 months, Nebraska lost 2,500 manufacturing jobs. “Our surveys of supply managers indicate these losses will continue into the first quarter of 2016,” Goss said.

North Dakota: North Dakota’s overall index inched up to a regional low of 36.9 from October’s 36.7, also a regional low. Components of the overall index were new orders at 31.0, production or sales at 32.8, delivery lead time at 47.5, employment at 37.8, and inventories at 35.5. Federal data show that over the past 12 months, North Dakota lost 300 manufacturing jobs. “Our surveys of supply managers indicate these losses will widen into the first quarter of 2016 as manufacturing linked to agriculture and energy sustain losses,” he said.

Oklahoma: The state’s overall index remained below growth neutral for a seventh straight month. The index fell to 37.5 from 40.1 in October. Components of the November index were new orders at 33.2, production or sales at 37.0, delivery lead time at 43.2, inventories at 39.8 and employment at 42.3. Federal data show that over the past 12 months, Oklahoma has lost 9,000 manufacturing jobs. “Our surveys of supply managers indicate these losses will continue into the first quarter of 2016 as lower energy prices weigh on Oklahoma’s economy and manufacturing,” said Goss.

South Dakota: South Dakota’s overall index dropped to 39.6 in November from 42.6 in October. Components of the overall index were new orders at 33.3, production or sales at 35.2, delivery lead time at 50.9, inventories at 38.1 and employment at 40.5. Federal data show that over the past 12 months South Dakota added 900 manufacturing jobs. “However, surveys over the last two months point to manufacturing losses through the first quarter of 2016,” said Goss.

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Online:

Creighton Economic Forecasting Group: http: //www.outlook-economic.com

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