- Associated Press - Tuesday, September 1, 2015

The Institute for Supply Management, formerly the Purchasing Management Association, began formally surveying its membership in 1931 to gauge business conditions.

The Creighton Economic Forecasting Group uses the same methodology as the national survey to consult supply managers and business leaders. Creighton University economics professor Ernie Goss oversees the report.

The overall index ranges between 0 and 100. Growth neutral is 50, and a figure greater than 50 indicates an expanding economy over the next three to six months.

Here are the state-by-state results for August:

Arkansas: The state’s overall index slipped to 52.1 from July’s 52.4. Components of the index were new orders at 55.7, production or sales at 49.8, delivery lead time at 56.2, inventories at 43.7 and employment at 54.6. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Arkansas has lost 1.3 percent of its manufacturing job base since January. The strong dollar, which has restrained sales abroad, weighed on the state’s durable-goods sector in terms of jobs, Goss said, while the nondurable-goods sector experienced slim job gains. “Our survey results over the past several months point to positive but weak gains for the overall state economy for the rest of 2015,” he said.

Iowa: Iowa’s overall index dipped to 51.6 in August from 51.8 in July. Components of the index were new orders at 55.1, production or sales at 49.3, delivery lead time at 56.2, employment at 54.1 and inventories at 43.3. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics says Iowa increased manufacturing employment by a half-percent since January. The strong dollar has weighed on the state’s durable-goods sector in terms of jobs, but job gains for the nondurable-goods sector more than offset durable-goods losses. “Our survey results over the past several months point to positive but weak gains for Iowa’s overall economy for the rest of 2015,” Goss said.

Kansas: The state’s overall index slipped below growth neutral, hitting 48.2 last month, compared with 50.0 in July. Components of the index were new orders at 51.5, production or sales at 46.1, delivery lead time at 52.5, employment at 50.5 and inventories at 40.5. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics says Kansas has added about 2,000 manufacturing jobs since January. Despite a strong dollar, which restrains foreign sales, Kansas added more than enough durable-goods jobs to offset slight losses for the state’s nondurable-goods sector, Goss said. “Creighton survey results over the past several months point to positive but weak gains for the overall state economy for the rest of 2015,” he said.

Minnesota: The August overall index fell to 51.9 from 54.8 in July. Components of the Minnesota overall index were new orders at 54.8, production or sales at 49.3, delivery lead time at 56.2, inventories at 49.8 and employment at 54.9. Minnesota’s level of manufacturing employment is virtually unchanged since January, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Minnesota job growth in durable goods, especially metal manufacturing, offset job losses among nondurable-goods producers. “Our survey results over the past several months point to positive economic gains for the overall state economy for the rest of 2015, despite weakness among manufacturers,” Goss said.

Missouri: The state’s overall index rose above growth neutral to reach 50.9, compared with 49.4 in July. Components of the index were new orders at 51.7, production or sales at 48.7, delivery lead time at 55.5, inventories at 42.8 and employment at 56.1. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Missouri has lost 0.5 percent of its manufacturing job base since January. “Our survey results over the past several months point to weak gains for Missouri’s overall economy for the rest of 2015,” Goss said.

Nebraska: After being above growth neutral for 19 straight months, Nebraska’s overall index fell below 50.0 for the second straight month, slumping to 45.9 in August from 48.6 in July. Components of the index were new orders at 49.0, production or sales at 43.8, delivery lead time at 49.9, inventories at 38.5 and employment at 48.1. Nebraska has lost about 2.5 percent of its manufacturing jobs since January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics says. The strong dollar, which has restrained sales abroad, has weighed on the state’s durable- and nondurable-goods sectors. “Our survey results over the past several months point to slight economic losses for the overall state economy for the rest of 2015,” Goss said.

North Dakota: The state’s overall index remained below growth neutral last month, falling to a regional low of 41.3 from July’s 43.9. Components of the overall index were new orders at 44.1, production or sales at 39.5, delivery lead time at 45.0, employment at 43.3, and inventories at 34.7. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, North Dakota has lost about 3.8 percent of its manufacturing jobs since January. “Only Wyoming is more dependent on the two U.S. industries experiencing pullbacks in economic activity - agriculture and energy,” Goss said. Creighton’s survey results over the past several months have pointed to economic losses for the overall state economy for the rest of the year, he said.

Oklahoma: The August overall index for Oklahoma came in below growth neutral for the fourth month in a row, slipping to 48.1 in August from 48.3 in July. Components of the index were new orders at 51.4, production or sales at 46.0, delivery lead time at 52.4, inventories at 40.4 and employment at 50.4. The state has lost about 3.6 percent of its manufacturing jobs since January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics says. The strong dollar and weakness in the state’s energy sector have weighed primarily on Oklahoma’s manufacturing sector, particularly metal producers. “Only Wyoming and North Dakota are more dependent on the two U.S. industries experiencing significant pullbacks in economic activity - agriculture and energy,” Goss said. Creighton’s survey results over the past several months have pointed to economic losses for the overall state economy for the rest of the year, he said.

South Dakota: After moving below growth neutral in November 2012, South Dakota’s overall index has been above growth neutral 50.0 each month since. The state’s index declined to a regional high of 54.3 last month from 55.8 in July. Components of the overall index were new orders at 58.0, production or sales at 51.9, delivery lead time at 59.1, inventories at 45.6 and employment at 56.9. South Dakota has increased manufacturing employment by 1.8 percent since January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics says. “The strong dollar, which has restrained sales abroad, did not dent the state’s manufacturing sector in terms of jobs,” Goss said. “Our survey results over the past several months point to positive gains for South Dakota’s overall economy for the rest of 2015,” he said.

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Online:

Creighton Economic Forecasting Group: http: //www.outlook-economic.com


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