Republican Sen. Martha McSally has some ground to make up in her special election showdown against Democrat Mark Kelly.
Mr. Kelly, an astronaut and husband of former Rep. Gabby Giffords, holds a 51% to 42% lead over Ms. McSally, according to a poll of likely voters from OH Predictive Insights.
The remaining 7% of respondents were on the fence.
Mr. Kelly holds a whopping 40-point lead over Ms. McSally among Independent voters.
“From fundraising to polling, Kelly currently has the advantage over McSally,” said Mike Noble, chief of research at OH Predictive Insights. “The good news for McSally is that the election is not for another seven months, and she has plenty of time to impress voters.”
The race in Arizona is seen as crucial to Democrats’ hopes of flipping control of the U.S. Senate in the 2020 election.
The same pollsters released a survey earlier this week showing President Trump trailing former Vice President Joseph R. Biden, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, by a similar 52% to 43% margin.
Ms. McSally, a former air force colonel, lost her 2018 Senate bid to then-Rep. Kyrsten Sinema after Republican Sen. Jeff Flake opted against running for reelection.
Gov. Doug Ducey, a Republican, then appointed Ms. McSally to the seat that had belonged to the late Sen. John McCain, who died of brain cancer complications while serving his sixth term in the Senate.
The Kelly campaign announced this week he raised $11 million over the first three months of the year and has nearly $20 million in the bank.
Ms. McSally, meanwhile, raised $6.3 million over that same period of time and has $10.2 million in the bank.
The poll of 600 likely voters carried a margin of error of plus or minus 4%.