The University of Virginia’s Center for Politics is forecasting that Democratic nominee Joseph R. Biden will defeat President Trump in the 2020 presidential election.
The authors of Sabato’s Crystal Ball — Larry Sabato, Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman — predict in their final preelection rating that Mr. Biden will emerge from the election with 321 electoral votes, compared to 217 for Mr. Trump.
The Center for Politics is looking to right their forecasting ship after predicting Hillary Clinton was going to win by a similar 322 to 216 margin four years ago.
The 2020 breakdown shows Mr. Biden is favored to resurrect the so-called “Blue Wall” by winning Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and shows the Democrat is their pick to win Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.
Mr. Trump is favored in Florida, Iowa, Ohio and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District.
In the Senate, the analysts say the GOP will flip a seat held by Democrats in Alabama, but will lose seats in Maine, Colorado, North Carolina and Arizona.
The net result would be 50 seats for Democrats and 48 for the GOP.
Georgia’s two seats are both held by Republicans, and both are on the ballot this year.
Mr. Sabato says nobody will emerge with a clear majority in either race on Tuesday, which under that state’s rules means runoffs next month.
Depending on those races, the Senate could emerge 50-50, with control determined by the vice president.