BANGKOK — President Biden risks snubbing key Asian nations that the U.S. has been trying to woo if he does not attend the mid-November Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Bangkok, allowing Chinese President Xi Jinping to seize the spotlight as Beijing’s regional influence swells, political analysts say.
Aides have not confirmed Mr. Biden’s travel plans, but his granddaughter’s wedding at the White House is set for Nov. 19, the second day of the two-day summit in the Thai capital. Thai newspapers are reporting that Mr. Biden is not coming but China’s foreign minister has verbally confirmed that Mr. Xi will make the trip.
APEC members are Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Peru, the Philippines, Russia, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, the U.S. and Vietnam. The leaders of the Pacific Rim bloc have not met in person since 2018, partly because of the global shutdown at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
November is shaping up as a busy month for global diplomacy. A major U.N. climate conference starts in Egypt on Nov. 6. The leaders of the Group of 20 nations — which includes the U.S., Russia and China — are set to gather on Nov. 15 and 16 on the Indonesian resort island of Bali. The APEC gathering kicks off two days later in Bangkok. Sandwiched between the meetings, from Nov. 10 to Nov. 13, is the annual summit in Cambodia of ASEAN, the collective of 10 Southeast Asian nations that Washington and Bangkok are courting heavily.
Thai newspapers have reported that the U.S. government has privately told Bangkok that Mr. Biden will be a no-show, although the government is holding out hope that the president will make the trip.
“We are still coordinating with the U.S., and this issue is not black and white yet,” Tanee Sangrat, a Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson, said in a television interview late last month. “The important thing is not about who will be attending; it is about which economies are joining and what they will be discussing.”
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The opposition to Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha said Mr. Biden’s decision reflects unhappiness with Mr. Prayuth’s authoritarian rule, and private analysts say it sends a clear signal.
“Biden’s absence would not, in and of itself, have a major impact on U.S.-Asia-Pacific relations, as it was always unlikely that he would attend all three November 2022 events in the region,” Benjamin Zawacki, a Bangkok-based Asia Foundation senior program specialist, said in an interview, but “the contrast [with Mr. Xi’s attendance] will be notable and duly noted by the press and pundits.”
“Washington’s main obstacles are distance and distraction or, put differently, its lack of geographical proximity to much of the rest of the Asia-Pacific, and its necessarily diffuse attention span as a global power,” Mr. Zawacki said. “Few think of the U.S. first and foremost as an Asia-Pacific power, whereas China is synonymous with the term.”
Officials in APEC countries are weighing the significance if Mr. Biden passes on the Thailand gathering.
“Delegations to APEC summits are usually headed by heads of state or heads of government,” former Thai Foreign Minister Kantathi Suphamongkhon said in an interview.
“Symbolism here is important. Sending a lower-ranking official to a summit would likely be seen as a snub to APEC,” said Mr. Kantathi, now on the advisory board of the California-based Rand Corp.’s Center for Asia Pacific Policy.
Thai media sources say Vice President Kamala Harris reportedly would substitute for Mr. Biden if he skips APEC.
“China will benefit from this by demonstrating its commitment to APEC and the Asia-Pacific region at the highest governmental level, in contrast to the U.S.,” Mr. Kantathi said.
Another former foreign minister, Kasit Piromya, who was at one point Thailand’s APEC representative, said, “The non-attendance of President Biden will make the summit less interesting and significant.
“There will be a general disappointment. Thailand will feel a loss of face. There is a perception that the U.S. is too busy elsewhere, the U.S. is too distant and aloft,” Mr. Kasit said in an interview.
“The obstacles come from within Washington, D.C., the lack of political will and motivation, the shortage of expertise and internal communication to come out with common policy measures. People, in general, are afraid of regime change.”
China will be closely watching Mr. Biden’s decision.
“The U.S. is increasingly absent from Southeast Asia,” said Joe Horn-Phathanothai, a financial adviser in Thailand and China. “Look no further than the fact they have been without an ambassador to Thailand, supposedly one of their core partners in the region, for 3½ of the past eight years,” he said in an interview.
The Senate confirmed veteran diplomat Robert F. Godec as the ambassador to Thailand in early August.
“If Xi attends APEC while Biden does not, it makes China look better vis-a-vis the APEC members and makes America look more absent,” Mr. Horn-Phathanothai said.
Mr. Tanee was more optimistic.
“I think the U.S. leader does give Asia-Pacific precedence, especially now that the U.S. is in conflict with other superpowers,” he told reporters.
Eager to embellish China’s image, Beijing’s government-controlled China Daily occasionally publishes an “All You Need to Know, China Watch” two-page supplement in the Bangkok Post, Thailand’s biggest English-language newspaper.
The insert’s top story on Friday pointedly noted the achievements of Mr. Xi’s signature “Belt and Road” foreign infrastructure financial program, including its developmental aid spending, infrastructure benefits and financing. It also featured China’s high-speed railway “expertise,” including participation in “the Jakarta-Bandung High Speed Railway in Indonesia, the China-Laos Railway, and the Belgrade-Budapest Railway, which links Serbia and Hungary.”
APEC members are expected to learn more about these and other accomplishments directly from Mr. Xi next month.