A record high 48% of Americans expect the stock market will decline during the first half of this year, Gallup reported Monday.
That’s higher than the previous peak of 43% of adults who told the polling company in June and July of 2002 that they expected the market to fall “a lot or a little” over the next six months. Gallup started polling the question in October 2001.
Another 18% said they expect the market to remain the same during the first six months of 2023, and 31% predicted it will go up a lot or a little.
“Americans are likely factoring the stock market’s recent poor performance into their outlook for 2023, after just ending its worst year since the Great Recession,” Gallup said.
Americans responding to the company’s latest poll were also “more likely” to foresee higher inflation (67% of respondents), unemployment (41%) and interest rates (74%) than to expect positive outcomes.
And a record-high 36% of those surveyed said they expect reduced economic growth over the next six months, compared to 20% who expect no change and 43% who predict improvement.
“High inflation, interest rate hikes, a rough end to 2022 for the stock market and recent big tech layoffs are all likely contributing to Americans’ pessimistic views of key U.S. economic conditions for the first half of 2023,” Gallup said.
Gallup conducted the randomized national telephone survey of 1,011 adults on Jan. 2-22. The margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.