Republican strategists say the Democratic Congress’ plunging job-approval rating gives them a fresh chance to make gains in next year’s elections under a developing Republican strategy that is urging its candidates to run an insurgent, anti-incumbent campaign.
“We’re working closely with our candidates as we head into next year to tell them don’t be afraid to run against Republicans as a whole, run against Washington as a whole, talk about runaway spending, and pick and choose the issues on which to run against this Congress,” a Republican party campaign official said.
The Republican election strategy shift comes on the heels of a Gallup survey showing that only 18 percent of Americans approve of the job Congress is doing, dealing the Democratic majority a major blow that has lifted Republican hopes of a comeback and raised questions in Democratic ranks about why so many Democrats and independents are giving them a failing grade and how to turn that around.
“The number that interests me most is the collapse of the independents, which dropped 13 points, from 30 percent last month to 17 percent this month. That’s the swing vote. Those are the people who left the GOP in 2006. They did not embrace the Democrats. Their vote was a rejection of the Republicans,” said Frank Luntz, the Republican pollster who helped the party take control of Congress in 1994.
“And now those independents are up for grabs. It took the Democrats eight months to do what it took the Republicans four years in terms of damage,” he said.
But officials in both parties and veteran election strategists say it is too early to gauge whether the Democrats’ falling approval polls spell real trouble for them next year.
“There are two schools of thought,” elections analyst Charlie Cook said in a recent analysis in the Cook Political Report. “The first is that after six and a half years of George W. Bush’s presidency, the Republican brand has been badly tarnished.
“The other school says that although the Republican brand has been badly damaged, the public mood remains as ugly today as it was before the tidal wave election last November. That is that Democrats in Congress have accomplished very little, leaving voters unimpressed with their leadership,” Mr. Cook said.
Thus, “adherents to this point of view conclude that a problematic volatility has been created for all incumbents and that while voters may still be anti-Republican, they are certainly not pro-Democratic. They warn that voters may be receptive to insurgent candidates of either party or no party come 2008,” he said.
This appears to be part of the emerging campaign strategy Republican congressional leaders plan to pursue next year, party officials told The Washington Times.
“We’re heading into an anti-incumbent year. Those candidates who can best present themselves as an agent of change will succeed in this environment,” a senior Republican official said.
Ken Spain, press secretary for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said “Democrats promised change. No change has been delivered, and now we are seeing the results of that. This has all the makings of an anti-incumbent environment that we believe will benefit Republican challengers next year.”
Democratic campaign officials acknowledge that there is a deep frustration among their party’s rank-and-file supporters over the failure of House and Senate Democratic leaders to force a troop-withdrawal timetable in the Iraq war and make progress on other pieces of the party’s agenda.
“The public is frustrated with the pace of change, and that is due largely to a Republican president and Republicans trying to block legislation from being enacted,” a party spokesman said.
“While Democrats remain focused and committed to enacting a popular agenda which moves America forward, national Republicans prefer blocking progress in a cynical attempt to score political points at the expense of the American people,” said Doug Thornell, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s press secretary.
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