Through the NIE lens

OPINION:

The Intelligence Community (IC) publicly released its take on prospects for Iraq’s stability in the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Aug. 23.

Many commentators have already recognized the NIE as either a glass “half-full” or a “half-empty,” depending on one’s perspective of the war in Iraq. Regardless, the NIE underscores a few noteworthy key points.

The regional perspective of the Iraq war is sometimes lost in the exchange of commentaries and criticisms of the mission.

I myself have been concerned with Iran’s intent to use Iraq as a land-bridge to Syria, Lebanon and Israel. Iran would benefit greatly from being able to openly use Iraq as a conduit to provide support to Hamas and Hezbollah. Iran would also be able to more effectively aid Syria’s objective to destabilize the Lebanese government.

A rushed pullout of American forces or premature change in mission could create the conditions for Iran and Syria to exploit a weakened Iraq. The NIE says “The IC assesses that Iraq’s neighbors will continue to focus on improving their leverage in Iraq in anticipation of a Coalition drawdown.” It comments on Iran as a destabilizing force in Iraq, and on Syria’s support of groups in Iraq to increase its own influence there. The Syrian-Iranian strategic partnership that has emerged — which includes Iran bolstering Syria’s weapons arsenal and a commitment to share nuclear research with Syria — is already extremely dangerous. Giving them unfettered access through Iraq would clearly exacerbate the threat.

The NIE discussed the diminished capability of al Qaeda in Iraq in some areas due to new partnerships between American and Iraqi forces, tribal leaders and select Sunni insurgent groups. It emphasized that al Qaeda is still capable of high-profile attacks. We already know that is receiving support from higher al Qaeda leadership, and it has made Iraq a central front in its own campaign. If we do not sustain our support to Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s security forces, we may not only lose recently gained ground but will provide al Qaeda the operational space to plan and conduct operations throughout the Arabian Peninsula.

The NIE was fairly critical of Iraq’s government and prospects for improvement in the near-term. I shared my thoughts and insight with the prime minister in a letter to him in March. It may be counterproductive, though, for American leaders to publicly criticize Mr. al-Maliki as it undermines his authority and supports his detractors. I am encouraged by success stories on the provincial level that suggest a capacity for this government to succeed in the future.

In one such recent account, a Diyala Provincial Council member, Mouna al-Umairi, braved several trips across the Diyala River, armed with her pistol and a few bodyguards, to deliver annual test material to schools in the Baqubah area. When you speak to service personnel who have served in Iraq, you will find more of these success stories that reinforce in my mind that there are public servants in Iraq who are unquestionably committed to providing a better life for their citizens. These leaders will continue to emerge as security conditions improve.

The NIE addressed the progress of the Iraqi Security Forces, saying, despite improvements, they are not prepared to conduct major independent operations and still rely on the U.S. for combat support and logistics. It praised recent joint Iraqi army and police operations.

Evidence of this key judgment is reflected in stories such as the recent gathering of more than a million Shi’ite pilgrims in Baghdad’s Kadhimiya neighborhood to commemorate the death of the Seventh Imam. Iraqi police worked with the Iraqi army to ensure a safe event. The 2005 commemoration was marred by violence and the deaths of nearly 1,000 pilgrims. A senior U.S. commander in Iraq said he had not heard of a single injury during this year’s event.

Finally, the NIE acknowledged there have been “modest improvements in economic output, budget execution, and government finances but fundamental structural problems continue to prevent sustained progress in economic growth and living conditions.” Just as a grassroots movement has taken hold in an effort to clear AQI from the neighborhoods, it is my belief a similar movement will take hold to improve the economic and governance infrastructure throughout the provinces.

There are many success stories at the provincial level that show progress. The electricity sector is gradually improving, which is obscured by the fact demand has increased significantly. Iraqi officials working with coalition forces reopened a flour mill in Baqubah that will employ 100 workers, lower the price of bread in Diyala, and produce 200 tons of finished flour per day. In a protest that would have been met with severe retribution during Saddam’s regime, residents of Khalis held a public demonstration and were given the opportunity to air their grievances to provincial security and governance officials.

The synergy of these types of success stories across the provinces will provide a solid foundation for the national government. It’s hard to criticize the al-Maliki government given the less-than-impressive track record for the 110th Congress thus far, particularly considering the conditions under which the Iraqis must function.

All in all, I’m encouraged by the NIE assessment. It acknowledges some success but does not turn a blind eye to the challenges that remain. It also reaffirms the dangers and adverse impacts of a U.S. force drawdown. This assessment clearly supports the assertion that Gen. David Petraeus’ current strategy is working. It would be shameful to force him to change course now or limit his options when our service members and the Iraqi forces have begun to build momentum.

Jim Saxton, a New Jersey Republican, is a ranking member of the House Armed Services Committee, and founder and senior member of the House Terrorism and Unconventional Threats Subcommittee.