BATON ROUGE, La. — Rep. Bobby Jindal holds a commanding lead heading into tomorrow’s gubernatorial primary, but it is not clear whether he can avoid a runoff election.
A poll released last week by Southeastern Louisiana University showed the two-term Republican congressman leading the race with 46 percent of the vote. But a candidate must get 50 percent of the vote to avoid a runoff election Nov. 17.
His closest opponents are Democratic state Sen. Walter J. Boasso with 10 percent of the vote, independent businessman John Georges with 9 percent and Democratic Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell with 6 percent.
They are running to replace Gov. Kathleen Babineaux Blanco, who decided not to seek re-election in the aftermath of widespread criticism of her response to Hurricane Katrina in 2005. She has not endorsed any of the candidates.
A potential problem for Mr. Jindal is that the poll, conducted Oct. 1-7, showed that 29 percent of registered voters are undecided. Half the undecided voters are blacks, who compose 29.8 percent of the state’s 2.8 million registered voters.
Mr. Jindal has weak ties to the black community and he snubbed a NAACP-sponsored forum that all of his opponents attended. The New Orleans Tribune, a black weekly, endorsed Mr. Georges on Sunday, citing his support for black entrepreneurship and praising him as the only candidate to participate in last month’s protest for the Jena 6.
Ed Renwick, a New Orleans pollster who conducted a survey for five local TV stations, said his poll showed black voters will be staying home on primary day.
During a recent interview in Lafayette, Mr. Jindal said he is telling supporters to prepare for a runoff, noting that no non-incumbent has ever won the governorship in the first round. If elected, Mr. Jindal would become the country’s first Indian-American governor.
Our biggest fear is voters staying home and saying: ’Oh, the election’s won. Don’t worry about it. We read the polls; it doesn’t matter,’ he said. The reality is, every single vote counts.
The four men held their final debate last night in New Orleans, but no one seemed to score a knockout punch.
Each of the candidates claims to be the best qualified to help the state recover from the lingering effects of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita; to improve education and infrastructure; and to combat corruption.
Mr. Jindal’s opponents have sniped at his record, with Mr. Boasso claiming the congressman voted to deny medical benefits to reservists and National Guardsmen returning from Iraq and Afghanistan. One of his TV ads uses the phrase big brain, no heart when referring to Mr. Jindal.
Mr. Jindal’s ads portray Mr. Boasso as a clown in the state Senate and assert that Mr. Georges has made much of his fortune from the gambling industry, primarily video poker equipment. Mr. Georges released tax returns showing he made less than 10 percent of his income last year from his gambling enterprises.
Mr. Campbell has tried unsuccessfully to break from the pack with a plan to tax foreign oil and gas transported across Louisiana, which he says would raise $5.5 billion and eliminate the need for the state income tax; others question the plan’s constitutionality.
Mr. Jindal has raised far more than his opponents, while Mr. Georges and Mr. Boasso, both multimillionaires, have been financing their campaigns largely out of their own pockets.
Boasso and Georges are spending money like there’s no tomorrow, Mr. Renwick said.
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