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Bin Laden tape hints at al Qaeda frailty

United Press International
October 28, 2007

Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden warns Islamic insurgent groups against the dangers of factionalism in a new message analysts say reveals a weakness in the insurgency.

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Osama bin Laden's appeal for unity between Iraq's Sunni insurgent groups confirms what many have believed for some time: al Qaeda in Iraq is increasingly isolated and that splits in the insurgency may be its greatest weakness.

"Sticks refuse to break when banded together, but if they come apart, they break one by one," bin Laden said in his latest audio message, portions of which were broadcast Monday by the Al Jazeera television network. "There is no room for conflict between the Muslims who truly surrender to the order of Allah."

Analysts, however, are divided over the exact intended audience for the full message, which was released the following day with English subtitles by al Qaeda central's media arm, As-Sahab.

In the message, bin Laden praises the bravery of the fighters he calls mujahedeen, or Islamic holy warriors, but gently chastises them for unspecified "mistakes," warns them sternly against the dangers of factionalism and reminds them that disputes have to be settled according to the Islamic Shariah law.

The al Qaeda leader does not mention any groups by name, and while some commentators see his words aimed squarely at his own followers in al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), others see them pitched as a more general appeal to a Sunni insurgency increasingly riven by factionalism.

"He is trying to float above the fray," said Evan Kohlmann, an international terrorism consultant who tracks the public statements of Iraqi insurgent groups and has testified in federal terror prosecutions.

"I don't think the message was aimed solely at AQI," he said.

But Fawaz Gerges, an academic and author who recently returned from a year in the region, where he researched the insurgency, said the message was aimed squarely at bin Laden's own followers in AQI who had alienated their social base, the Sunni Arabs.

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