TEL AVIV — The final report this week of an inquiry into the handling of the 2006 war in Lebanon could determine the fate of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s government just as it settles into peace talks with the Palestinians.
Mr. Olmert was nearly forced to resign after the preliminary report of the Winograd Commission described his authorization of the war as a “serious failure.”
The prime minister could face a similar shock wave depending on the final report’s assessment of his decision to conclude the war with a 60-hour offensive that cost the lives of 33 soldiers just as diplomats at the United Nations were nearing a cease-fire deal.
Resignation calls already are on the rise ahead of Wednesday’s publication date. In an effort to pre-empt the pressure, Mr. Olmert said he won’t resign — no matter what the conclusions.
Opponents hope to pressure coalition partners such as Defense Minister Ehud Barak, who said after the preliminary report that Mr. Olmert should step down after the final report.
“This is the last milestone. If Olmert succeeds in getting over this hurdle, he’ll have weathered the storm,” said Yisrael Klausner, whose son, Ehud, was killed in the war. Mr. Klausner wants to see Mr. Olmert “accept responsibility” and step down.
“Barak is the only chance. If Barak wants to be a leader, he needs to bring down the government.”
Analysts, however, say Mr. Barak is unlikely to resign because opinion polls suggest his Labor Party would lose a new election to Benjamin Netanyahu and the Likud party.
“The current coalition is the best available coalition for Israel at this moment, and there is no reason to dismantle it,” Labor leader Ephraim Sneh said.
The Olmert government absorbed a blow earlier this month, when hawkish legislator Avigdor Lieberman and his party bolted from the coalition — shaving the majority controlled by Mr. Olmert by 11 of the 120 parliamentary seats.
Israelis will be hanging on every word of the Winograd Commission’s assessment of Mr. Olmert’s last-minute decision in ordering Israeli forces to capture southern Lebanese territory south of the Litani River and to snuff out Katyusha rocket fire.
If the commission implies the operation was ordered by Mr. Olmert because of a political need to end the war with a successful offensive, the prime minister will face more pressure to resign.
“A lot depends on the language,” said Shlomo Aronson, a professor of political science at Hebrew University.
“If the report is formulated in terms of reckless, almost irresponsible, behavior related to the last phase of the war,” it could trigger a political landslide toward new elections, he said.
Despite the prime minister’s low job-approval ratings, analysts doubt the report will spark a wave of public demonstrations for his departure. Mr. Olmert’s decision to renew peace negotiations with the Palestinians also has taken some pressure off him to quit.
“I regret that Olmert never resigned and there were no new elections,” wrote Shlomo Avineri, a former Foreign Ministry director general, in a recent article in Ha’aretz newspaper.
“But what was correct a year and a half ago isn’t necessarily correct and suitable for today. Even one who concluded that Olmert failed during the Lebanon war can’t ignore that his diplomatic and security moves indicate a responsible and enlightened mode of operation.”
Another important chapter of the report will discuss the preparation of Israel’s home front for a war in which it became the main target for Hezbollah’s Katyusha rockets. Much has been made of the lack of bomb shelters in the communities under attack. The report is expected to examine the prime minister’s decision not to declare a state of emergency in the north.
The report also is expected to delve into whether Israel missed an opportunity to cut an early deal for Hezbollah to return two soldiers kidnapped near the Lebanon border.
It is expected to rule as well on Israel’s use of cluster bombs during the war, a move that has sparked accusations of war crimes.
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