GOP fights to hold district

Mississippi voters today could give Democrats their second special congressional election victory this month in the Deep South, a potentially embarrassing black eye for House Republicans — already hit with fundraising problems, retirements and a recent sex scandal — and a scenario many say could repeat itself in November.

Democrat Travis Childers and Republican Greg Davis face off in a special runoff election to serve the final months of the north Mississippi seat vacated by former Rep. Roger Wicker, a Republican appointed to replace former Sen. Trent Lott, who resigned in December.

Mr. Childers last month finished first in a nonpartisan special election for the seat with more than 49 percent of the vote, but fell about 410 votes shy of the 50-percent-plus-one vote majority needed to win outright. Mr. Davis finished second with 46 percent.

Both parties have spent considerable effort and money on the race. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), the fundraising arm of House Democrats, spent about $1.6 million on the race as of Thursday. The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) spent $1.1 million.

But the conservative advocacy group Freedom’s Watch chipped in about $460,000 for advertisements to help Mr. Davis’ campaign. And several big name Republicans, including Vice President Dick Cheney and popular Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour have campaigned for Mr. Davis.

“The fact that we’re talking about a race in north Mississippi that [President] George Bush won by 62 percent in 2004 just shows how strong a candidate Travis Childers is,” said DCCC spokeswoman Jennifer Crider.

Political analysts and Democratic officials say the party recruited a near-perfect candidate in Mr. Childers, a conservative county official who appeals to the rural, Republican-leading district.

“He’s from the right [rural] part of the district, he represents the values of the people in north Mississippi, and he’s just a great fit, and that’s why this is a competitive race,” Miss Crider said.

But NRCC spokesman Ken Spain cautioned about counting out Mr. Davis, saying, “Republicans are committed to winning in Mississippi, and we believe the momentum is on our side.”

“Voters will have a clear choice [today] between Greg Davis, who will represent Mississippi values in Congress, and Travis Childers who will say one thing on the campaign trail, but will undoubtedly do the bidding of liberal [House] Speaker Nancy Pelosi,” Mr. Spain said.

If Mr. Childers were to defeat Mr. Davis today, it would be the third special House election Democrats have won in long-standing Republican districts since March.

Louisiana Democrat Don Cazayoux beat Republican Woody Jenkins this month in a contest to replace former Republican Rep. Richard H. Baker, who resigned after 20 years to take a lobbying job. Mr. Cazayoux won 49 percent of the vote to Mr. Jenkins’ 46 percent.

Mr. Cazayoux, who holds conservative positions on gun rights and abortion, survived a bevy of television and radio ads by Washington Republican interest groups that attacked him as a tax-happy liberal.

In March, Democrat Bill Foster defeated Republican Jim Oberweis in a special House election to fill the remaining months of the Illinois district seat held by former House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert for more than two decades.

Republicans retained one House seat this month when state Sen. Steve Scalise easily defeated Democrat Gilda Reed in a special election to fill the seat held by Bobby Jindal, who resigned in January before being sworn in as governor. But the suburban New Orleans seat has voted Republican for years, so Mr. Scalise’s victory was expected.

House Republicans also must defend at least 25 seats vacated by members who opted not to seek re-election in November, compared with only about a half-dozen Democratic retirements.

A lack of money is adding to Republican woes, as the DCCC holds a 6-to-1 edge in available cash as of March 31, federal election records show.

And if House Republicans didn’t have enough to worry about, Rep. Vito Fossella of New York is facing calls for his resignation after he confessed last week that he fathered a child from an extramarital affair.