OPINION:
Everywhere he looks, embattled Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert sees potential disaster looming — from the ominous consolidation of power by Hezbollah in Lebanon to terror from Gaza and the ever-present threat of a nuclear Iran. But right now, it is an open question how long Mr. Olmert will be able to stay in office amid a series of corruption probes that center on whether he received hundreds of thousands of dollars in illegal cash from a wealthy New York businessman between 1993 and 2005. Other allegations concern whether Mr. Olmert received a bag stuffed with cash from a different American businessman in the back of a taxicab. Police anti-fraud investigators have raided government offices and are poring through records in an effort to discover whether he used Israeli Cabinet positions and his time as mayor of Jerusalem to take actions benefiting business associates. Mr. Olmert says he will resign if indicted.
A new telephone poll of 512 Israelis found that by a nearly 2-1 margin (62 percent to 32 percent), Israeli voters believe Mr. Olmert should resign. Perhaps the most ominous sign was that by a 52 percent to 35 percent margin, members of Mr. Olmert’s own Kadima Party want him to leave. But members of the dovish Labor Party, Mr. Olmert’s leading coalition partner, split 50 percent to 48 percent in favor of keeping him in office. That’s not surprising: Public opinion polls show former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, leader of the hawkish Likud Party, would likely win any election, and Mr. Olmert has taken a relatively conciliatory stance in negotiations with the Palestinians. Kadima, by contrast, was formed as a centrist party in late 2005 by then-Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. Its members are a mix of left and right, and many of them have reservations about Mr. Olmert’s handling of the Palestinian issue — in addition to the corruption allegations against the prime minister.
Right now, Kadima heads a coalition which holds 67 seats in the 120-member Israeli Knesset; Kadima holds 29, Labor has 19, Pensioners Party, seven, and a religious party called Shas has 12. Shas is the party to watch. It represents what many Israelis refer to as the “ultra-Orthodox” Jewish community, combines conservative social views with strong support for the Israeli welfare state and a bizarre amalgamation of hawkish and dovish perspectives on security issues.
Prior to President Bush’s May 14 arrival, Shas Party Chairman Eli Yishai warned that his party would leave the government if it reached an agreement with the Palestinians. But the same Shas Party has been pursuing negotiations with Hamas in an effort to win the release of Cpl. Gilad Shalit, an Israeli soldier kidnapped by Hamas in June 2006. Also, last month Mr. Yishai met with former President Carter at a time when virtually every other Israeli political party refused to do so. To a large extent, Mr. Olmert’s political future is currently in the hands of this volatile, unpredictable party.
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