Most of the undecided voters across the nation — 62 percent — are women, and they are aggressively being courted by both presidential candidates, who have tailored campaign messages to increase their take of the crucial voting bloc.
Although a new poll by the New York Times shows Democrat Sen. John Kerry reversing a six-week skid to pull ahead of President Bush among women, 50 percent to 40 percent, a slew of other polls show Mr. Bush in a statistical tie with the Massachusetts senator. A poll this week by Newsweek, on the other hand, puts Mr. Bush in the lead with women, 49 percent to 43 percent.
Which is right? All of them, says Lori Weigel, a partner with Public Opinion Strategies, a Republican polling firm that conducts surveys for NBC News and the Wall Street Journal.
“Women tend to wait longer and are more likely to react to new information — a lot from advertising — and therefore, they move around more,” she said. “That’s why much of the focus is on women right now.”
Although she takes issue with the Newsweek poll — “If Bush was winning women overall, this election would be over” — she acknowledged that women are “leaning toward Kerry right now, but they’re more in play this time.”
Former Vice President Al Gore took the majority of the women’s vote in 2000, 54 percent to 42 percent — 1 point below the take of President Clinton in 1996. But a new group of so-called “security moms” is changing the female demographic this election.
“Looking at the demographics, knowing that there are a lot of women in this group — married, with kids — they may be more likely to side with Bush, but they have questions, given the way the war has gone,” said Bill Frey, a demographer with the Brookings Institution.
With less than two weeks to go in the campaign, both candidates are making emotional appeals to undecided women, who, if the polls are accurate, could total as many as 11 million voters.
The Kerry campaign released a new ad in battleground states that portrays the senator as the best candidate to lead the country in a time of terrorism.
“I want to look in my daughter’s eyes and know that she is safe, and that is why I am voting for John Kerry,” says Kristen Breitweiser, whose husband was killed in the September 11 terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center in New York.
Republicans have countered with a massive ad buy — $14 million — that features a 16-year-old girl whose mother was killed in the World Trade Center attack.
The ad, which features a melancholy piano score, shows a picture of Wendy Faulkner of Mason, Ohio, and follows with a shot of the president hugging young Ashley, his eyes filled with emotion.
“He’s the most powerful man in the world, and all he wants to do is make sure I’m safe, that I’m OK,” Ashley says to the camera. The ad ends with a freeze-frame of Bush, in profile, his head bowed.
Both commercials target women, who make up 53 percent of the electorate.
The “Ashley” ad, sponsored by Progress For America Voter Fund, a 527 advocacy group, is airing in nine states — Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Missouri — and often during programs traditionally watched by women.
The commercials also illustrate each campaign’s attempt to draw support from suburban women, who are most often married with young children. Pollster John Zogby said although most polls show “the gender gap is almost gone, the marriage gap is huge. Married women can differ by 25 to 30 points on vote preference and issues.”
Unmarried women give a 17-point advantage to Mr. Kerry, while married women give Mr. Bush a six-point advantage, says Celinda Lake, president of Lake, Snell, Perry & Associates and a top Democratic Party strategist.
The two campaigns seek the suburban vote because “most urban women support Kerry, but most rural women back Bush,” Miss Weigel said. “Suburban women are the tossup.”
Many pollsters say the typical swing female voter is older than 50, lives in the suburbs and works outside the home. Half are married; a majority never attended college.
Tad Devine, senior adviser for the Kerry campaign, said domestic issues such as health care, pay equity and the minimum wage are key to the undecided demographic, one reason the Democrat mentions them in every stump speech.
Mr. Kerry also brings up stem-cell research and the recent shortage of flu shots, issues that have polled well with women.
“These more-targeted issues fit into a more-targeted, direct appeal,” he said.
But Reed Dickens, a spokesman for the Bush campaign, said that women are equally concerned about security and that the president has a proven record on the issue.
“He has been strong, steady and consistent, and I think that is what would appeal to women,” he said. “In a day and age where security is in the forefront of people’s minds, I think they would prefer a candidate whose decisions are rooted in conviction and principle, and who has shown that he can remain steady in tough times.”
In the closing days of the campaign, one unanswered question is why so many women lack enough information to choose a candidate. Miss Weigel offered an answer, quoting a woman from one of her focus groups.
“[I]f I got to come home from work every day, sit down on the couch and open the newspaper and watch the news every night while someone else fed my child, bathed my child, put my child to bed, I’d have a lot more information about politics, too.”
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