Issue posse . . . of baying politicians

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The Democrats think they have finally found an issue against President Bush that has political traction: The 16 words in his State of the Union address that said Saddam Hussein "sought" nuclear material in Africa.

This was one of president's many justifications for going to war in Iraq to topple Saddam's repressive regime. But it turned out that the intelligence information the CIA had to back up his claim was phony and Mr. Bush's critics -- some of whom are running for his job -- believe that this, plus the failure to find weapons of mass destruction, will help them win back the White House in 2004.

The issue, the Democrats say, raises questions about Mr. Bush's credibility and whether he exaggerated claims or deliberately misled the American people to strengthen his case for war. But there are a host of reasons why this issue will have no more traction than the other issues Democrats raised against Mr. Bush over the past 2 years.

First, the fact that the document the CIA possessed turned out to be a forgery does not mean that Saddam was not trying to obtain the means to build nuclear weapons. Intelligence sources here and abroad maintain that he has been seeking such materials for a long time.

Intelligence data comes into the CIA from a wide variety of sources, not all of which prove to be reliable or true. The black art of disinformation is part and parcel of the spying business, too, and analyzing what is true, possibly true or not true is a difficult business.

Second, British intelligence has independently verified that Saddam has tried to buy nuclear materials. And Mr. Bush referred to the British report in his Jan. 28 State of the Union address after personally receiving assurances from Prime Minister Tony Blair that the information was solid.

That claim was made in a public dossier in September, and Mr. Blair has repeatedly defended it, saying that it was based on "independent intelligence."

"I stand by entirely the claim that was made last September," he told the House of Commons last week.

British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw underscored Mr. Blair's statement, telling a parliamentary committee that the government had "reliable intelligence which we had not shared with the U.S." of Saddam's efforts to buy nuclear materials. That's pretty strong evidence.