Chen’s mixed signals

TAIPEI, Taiwan - President Chen Shui-bian promised Taiwan’s biggest-ever conference of foreign investors that he would improve relations with China by negotiating direct shipping and travel between the island and the mainland.

A few days later, he traveled to Taiwan’s southern port city of Kaohsiung and spat at China — telling a crowd of more than 100,000 supporters that Taiwan is a “sovereign and independent nation” and not part of China or any other country.

The mixed messages of late October came as Mr. Chen began his campaign for a second term as president of what is officially known as the Republic of China on Taiwan.

Supporters of Mr. Chen’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) expect their leader to spurn China’s demands that Taiwan reunite with the Chinese “motherland.”

But at the same time, Taiwan’s First World standard of living today is more dependent than ever on its trade with — and investments in — China than at any time in the past.

Friction between democratic Taiwan and authoritarian China typically generates plenty of heat in presidential campaigns, held here every four years, and that has U.S. officials worried.

“Election campaigns in Taiwan always increase the potential for cross-Strait misunderstandings and tensions,” one official said.

In each of the past two presidential contests, 1996 and 2000, campaign rhetoric provoked military muscle-flexing from China, forcing Washington to step in and calm things down.

This time, however, the United States finds itself heavily vested in Iraq. Moreover, the September 11 attacks and the war on terror have driven Washington and Beijing into a cooperative relationship that few would have imagined when the newly elected President George W. Bush promised to do “whatever it takes” to defend Taiwan against China.

Today, the Bush administration is depending on China to help negotiate an end to a crisis over North Korea’s decision to arm itself with atom bombs.

“This is what I call the new strategic cooperation between the U.S. and China,” said Andrew Yang, secretary-general of the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies, a think tank based in Taipei.

“China is very much counting on the United States to pressure Taiwan not to push the envelope [of independence]. The purpose is: ‘You scratch my back and I scratch yours, and we’re covering each other’s problem, at least for the time being.’”

When speaking to international audiences, Mr. Chen, 53, avoids attacking China’s claim that Taiwan is a rebel province.

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