Isabel equated to other storms

Weather experts are trying to piece together the likely path of Hurricane Isabel by studying the most devastating hurricanes in history, as well as storm systems that inexplicably have veered back out to sea.

“Right now, Isabel looks a lot like [Hurricane] Fran did in 1996,” said Richard Hitchens, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Sterling, Va.

“Fran moved northwest across Virginia,” Mr. Hitchens said. “That’s what Isabel seems ready to do. Both have very similar tracks. Fran was a little bit more powerful than Isabel seems to be right now.”

Fran — a Category 3 hurricane — was the third costliest in U.S. history, causing $3.2 billion in damage from North Carolina to Pennsylvania. Fran hit Cape Fear, N.C., on Sept. 5 with 120 mph winds, then fizzled out as Tropical Depression Fran two days later in Pennsylvania.

However, history shows that for every fearsome hurricane like Fran, there are hurricanes that turn out to be duds.

“In the Mid-Atlantic region, for every 10 times that you prepare for a hurricane, I’d say about 1.5 times do you ever see any actual serious damage,” said Clay Stamp, emergency management director for Ocean City.

In August 1993, for example, Ocean City officials prepared for the worst, Mr. Stamp said. Hurricane Emily was heading straight for the North Carolina coast with winds of more than 100 mph. But then Emily suddenly turned northeast, veering back out to sea and just skimming the coast.

“We geared up big time for Emily,” Mr. Stamp said. “We evacuated 150,000 people. Then the storm turned and we said, ’Wait, you can come back now.’ Hopefully, I’ll be saying the same thing about Isabel this time next week.”

The deadliest storm in U.S. history blew apart the small Gulf Coast city of Galveston, Texas, in 1900 without warning. The hurricane killed more than 6,000 people. Since then, the town has been pounded so often over the years that residents greet the prospect of another hurricane with sound preparations, then a shrug of the shoulders.

In fact, Galveston residents have some advice for people on the Eastern Seaboard, who are boarding up and evacuating as Isabel swirls toward land: “You do what you can to prepare, but then you just have to say ’Whatever happens is going to happen,’” said Michael Wodecki, 49, who runs a fishing pier in Galveston.

“You board up, you buy your supplies, and you evacuate if you have to,” said Mr. Wodecki. “But then you stop worrying. You’ve done all you can do. If it blows through, it blows through.”

But local officials with one eye on Isabel and another on history say it’s hard not to worry. The track record of hurricanes in the United States since 1900 is devastating. Twelve hurricanes have killed more than 100 people each; and 10 storms each have caused more than $1 billion in damage.

Hurricane Andrew ranks as the most costly storm in U.S. history. The Category 5 hurricane caused about $26.5 billion in damage in Florida and Louisiana when it hit land Aug. 24, 1992.

Hugo, the second most-costly hurricane, caused $7 billion in damages. The Category 4 hurricane hit Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the Leeward Islands and Charleston S.C., on Sept. 22, 1989.

Even though Isabel has been downgraded to a Category 2 hurricane, history shows that even a weakened storm could cause massive damages.

The “Ash Wednesday Storm” of 1962 killed 30 persons and caused more than $200 million in damage when a massive northeast storm system stalled off the coast of Virginia, Maryland and New Jersey. The storm wasn’t of hurricane magnitude because it did not have sustained winds of more than 74 mph.

Even meteorologists say it’s impossible to predict with certainty what Isabel will do, leaving local officials to rely on some time-tested rules and the latest weather reports.

“The only one thing you need to do to get ready for a hurricane,” Mr. Stamp said, “is to get out of its way.”