Departing troops test Iraq coalition

About one-third of coalition troops in Iraq, other than British and American soldiers, have left or are scheduled to be withdrawn after Jan. 30 elections, and remaining coalition members say they will be hard-pressed to fill the gaps.

Troops from the Netherlands and Hungary are to leave in mid-March; Poland — which ranks fourth in terms of numbers — intends to downsize its troop force; and Italy — the third largest troop provider — may not extend its present commitment, which ends this month, by more than three to six months.

The moves will reduce the multinational force on the ground by almost 2,200 troops by the end of March, bringing the total number of international soldiers who will have pulled out since the start of the war to just over 5,000 — about one-third of the coalition effort not including American and British forces.

Most coalition members say they will not decamp even if the security situation deteriorates, but decisions on troop deployments often rest on parliamentary votes, not executive decisions.

U.S. government officials are working to continue to build the coalition, said army spokesman Lt. Col. Joe Yoswa in Washington.

“We are working with NATO [and] we continue to have open lines of communication with our coalition partners and others who may want to join us,” he said.

Altogether, 13 countries have pulled out their troops or are planning to leave or reduce their presence. Nevertheless, according to Lt. Col. David C. Farlow of Central Command, coalition force strength after the invasion peaked last month with approximately 25,800 soldiers — roughly 9,000 of them British — with fresh troops from other countries such as Georgia more than making up for the troops that left.

Concrete country-by-country numbers are hard to come by. “We do not provide a comprehensive listing of countries that are supporting the operations there with forces on the ground,” said Col. Farlow, citing security concerns.

Although countries like South Korea and Japan recently joined the effort, other nations appear to be on their way out — using the January election as justification. The departures will increase pressure on allies who have vowed to stick with the United States until the end.

Robert Killebrew, a retired Army colonel who writes extensively on national security issues, said problems caused by the withdrawals would be more political than military, but that there was a risk in relying too heavily and too soon on Iraqi troops and police.

“We seem to be betting on the fact that the Iraqi army and national guard will be able to stand up and be effective as some allies pull out. I think that’s a tremendous gamble,” said Mr. Killebrew. Iraqi police and army have been regularly threatened and killed, and have often fled when attacked.

Col. Yoswa said the Iraqis “improve their own security capabilities” daily. Asked how long it would be until the Iraqi forces could face the terrorist threat on their own, he said: “The situation continues to be dynamic. Every day they get closer, [but] I don’t think you can put a time frame on it.”

Mr. Killebrew believes there will be more, not less, violence after the elections as terrorists and insurgents try to prevent a new government from taking over. As it is, gunfire, mortar attacks, car bombings and roadside bombs are a daily event in the capital.

Apart from British forces, most coalition troops have been serving in a division under Polish command in the central-southern section of Iraq, covering restive cities like Najaf and Karbala. As coalition members leave, pressure is being put on those left behind.

“There’s a limit to what they can handle,” said Robert Jamro, managing director of Polish Exchange, who works closely with Polish officials.

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