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Monday, February 9, 2004

Kerry to test his mettle with Southerners

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Sen. John Kerry has proved that he can be a national candidate, but in today's presidential primaries in Virginia and Tennessee he needs to prove that he can be a regional candidate as well.

The Massachusetts Democrat has won primaries and caucuses in the Northeast, the Northwest, the Southwest and the Midwest, but he has not shown he can win in the South -- something that is critical for the eventual nominee.

That looks likely to change today.

The latest Zogby tracking polls have Mr. Kerry winning 47 percent of support in Virginia and 45 percent of support in Tennessee -- well ahead of Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, who has 24 percent and 21 percent support in those states, respectively, and Wesley Clark, a retired Army general who has 11 percent and 19 percent support, respectively.

Meanwhile, former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, who is ignoring today's primaries, has changed his mind about needing to win in Wisconsin's primary next week.

"It's not going to be the end of the line," he said yesterday in an interview with local television stations in Wisconsin.

But just last week, Mr. Dean, in a memo to supporters, had said his chances all came down to Wisconsin.

"We must win Wisconsin," he wrote in a plea for contributions. "A win there will carry us to the big states of March 2 and narrow the field to two candidates. Anything less will put us out of this race."

Mr. Dean has not won any of the first 12 nomination contests, but told reporters his supporters had persuaded him to stay in the race even if he continues to lose.

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