President Bush, who has hesitated to support a constitutional amendment against homosexual “marriage,” is tangled in an issue that could cost him re-election, political analysts and prominent Republicans say.
Since San Francisco began granting licenses for same-sex couples to “marry” two weeks ago, senior Bush officials quietly have told reporters that the president would weigh in shortly. They predicted his endorsement of the constitutional amendment that is before both chambers on Capitol Hill.
But Mr. Bush has yet to do so. When given the chance to comment last week on San Francisco officials who are flouting the voter-approved California law defining marriage as a male-female union, the president said only that he is “troubled” and “watching very carefully.”
For pollster John Zogby, Mr. Bush’s caution is understandable.
“The president and his people have got to understand that this election is going to be really close,” Mr. Zogby said. “They’ve got to make sure that they’re not creating a situation that may turn around and hurt them in the end.”
But for others, especially conservative leaders, the delay in supporting a constitutional ban — which White House aides say is expected “sooner rather than later” — is inexplicable.
“Politically, it’s foolhardy,” said Bay Buchanan, a former Reagan administration official and head of American Cause, the think tank started by her brother, one-time Republican presidential candidate Pat Buchanan.
“This hesitancy makes the true believers be concerned that he’s not with us,” she said. “It’s a pretty obvious issue for us. We not only are anxious for him to support it, but we are very anxious for him to take a leadership role. The American people are with him on this issue.”
Gary Bauer, president of American Values and a Republican presidential hopeful in 2000, argues that opposing the judge-led drive to homosexual “marriage” is a political winner for Mr. Bush.
“There is nothing else on the president’s agenda that comes close to the polling numbers on this, not his economic plan, not Iraq, not government spending, nothing,” Mr. Bauer said.
Recent surveys bear that out. About 62 percent of registered voters oppose homosexual “marriage,” compared with 30 percent who support it, according to a Time-CNN poll released Feb. 5.
But there are dangers in following the polls.
Mr. Bush, who reached out to homosexuals in the 2000 campaign, won 25 percent of homosexual voters in that election. He faces the prospect of alienating not only homosexual Republicans, but members of the party who consider themselves fellow “compassionate conservatives.”
Mark Mead, political director for the Log Cabin Republicans, a homosexual group, said if the party wades into social issues during a presidential campaign, it risks repeating the loss by the president’s father in his 1992 re-election bid.
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