GOP strategists wary of California

Some Republicans are counseling President Bush’s re-election campaign to think twice before making a serious attempt to win California’s 55 electoral votes in November.

These Republicans say that spending the requisite $20 million to $25 million to chase votes in a state where Democrats have a 44 percent to 35 percent registration advantage makes little sense under virtually any circumstances.

“The enlightened view is that in a national election, California is tough for a Republican to try to win, given the cost — and there are so many other states that are more efficient for the Bush campaign to play in,” said Don Sipple, strategist for Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.

A new poll shows Mr. Bush leading Democratic front-runner Howard Dean in California, which remains the nation’s biggest political prize. As home to one out of every eight Americans, California wields one-fifth of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.

Yet Allan Hoffenblum, a longtime Republican consultant in the state, says when the Bush campaign considers money and logic, California gets shoved off the table — despite the election last year of Mr. Schwarzenegger, a Republican.

“If Bush carries California, he will carry 49 states, and if it looks like that kind of blowout, it makes no difference if he carries California,” said Mr. Hoffenblum. “But if it looks like a tight race, he should send his money elsewhere, where it stands a better chance of doing some good.”

Some Republicans fear Mr. Bush’s strategists may get snookered as they were in the 2000 campaign, when they ploughed $22 million — and Mr. Bush’s valuable time — into futile efforts in California.

“I hope they won’t make the same mistake twice,” said Club for Growth President Stephen Moore. “California is not necessary for Bush’s victory. We know he almost lost election in 2000 because Republicans wasted resources in California, when he should have been in Florida. Gore pretended to be worried about California and took steps to make it seem that California was in play when it wasn’t.”

Still, Republican advisers say, if by spring former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean is the de facto nominee of the Democrats, then battleground states like Ohio and Michigan could look solid for Mr. Bush and all signs could point to a Bush landslide. In that case, his strategists would be free to try for the even larger mandate they could claim with a California win.

“If by Memorial Day you decide you want to play here in California, you can do it,” Mr. Sipple said.

Bush national campaign manager Ken Mehlman said he is “optimistic about the president’s opportunities and the party’s future in the state.”

“We believe California has broad potential,” he said.

Mr. Bush is leading Mr. Dean in California by a surprising 51 percent to 36 percent margin, according to a Jan. 5-8 survey by Republican pollster Adam D. Probolsky.

“These numbers are going to tighten up by Election Day, but it is very encouraging for Republicans to know there can be a Bush advantage” in the state, said Mr. Probolsky. His poll surveyed 625 likely California voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

A Field Poll of 400 registered voters, released yesterday, found 52 percent of Californians expressing approval of Mr. Bush’s performance as president, up from 46 percent in September and 50 percent in August, Reuters news agency reports.

The biggest change of opinion about Mr. Bush came from Democrats, who expressed 29 percent approval in January, up from 19 percent in September.

Some Republicans think the White House would be throwing away a rare opportunity to bring California back into the Republican column for the first time since 1988.

“What’s different this time, we have a new and popular Republican governor,” said campaign strategist Wayne Johnson, who runs the largest Republican campaign consultancy in the state.

Mr. Mehlman said another reason to take the state seriously is that in the Oct. 6 gubernatorial-recall election, the two top Republican vote-getters, Mr. Schwarzenegger and conservative state Sen. Tom McClintock together got more than 50 percent of the total vote.