Safe and sorry

This was the end of the game known as the Ice Bowl, the Dallas Cowboys at the Green Bay Packers for the NFL Championship, Dec.31, 1967. The temperature was in minus double-figures, the Lambeau Field turf in such a condition that a future generation of broadcasters would be provided the essential phrase, “frozen tundra.” The Packers trailed 17-14. They had the ball with 16 seconds and no timeouts remaining, third-and-goal from just inside the 1.

Rather than kick a field goal that would send the game into overtime, Packers coach Vince Lombardi went for the victory. He said to his quarterback, Bart Starr, “Run it and let’s get out of here.” Starr followed both the advice and the block of guard Jerry Kramer into the end zone, giving birth to a signature moment in league history.

What immortal words did St. Louis Rams coach Mike Martz utter to his players in Saturday’s NFC playoff game against Carolina? Playing at home, with his team in position to win the game outright, Martz elected to go for the tying field goal. Did he say, “Sit on it and let’s try to win it in overtime?”

And what about Packers coach Mike Sherman, a direct Lombardi descendant? Ahead of the Philadelphia Eagles 17-14, on the road in Sunday’s playoff game, facing fourth-and-1 from the Philadelphia 41 with 2:30 remaining, how did he exhort his team? Was it, “Punt it and let’s see if we can hold ’em?”

OK, so Martz and Sherman probably didn’t say those things. It’s not important. What is important is that both teams are out of the playoffs.

After the Rams came back from an 11-point deficit to get within three and recovered an onside kick, Martz played it safe in the final possession to set up Jeff Wilkins’ field goal. Then the Rams lost in overtime. Previously known for his innovative and aggressive philosophy, Martz was never shy about proclaiming his boldness. “I like using the whole field,” and “I detest making it easy for the defense,” and “we’re going to set the conditions, not the defense” were typical comments.

Instead, Martz played not to lose. Former Dallas and Miami coach Jimmy Johnson pretty much summed up the general reaction.

“I talked about being bold in the playoffs. What happened to the ’Greatest Show on Turf?’” an exasperated Johnson hollered on Fox’s “NFL Today” broadcast. “What happened to all those great skill players?

“And then [in the final 2:39], they ran four plays trying to set up the field goal. Why didn’t they go for the end zone? I can’t understand it. Now, really. It should never have gone to overtime.”

Earlier, the Packers had failed on a fourth-and-goal running play from the 1. Otherwise, they had ripped the injury-depleted Eagles with the ground game. Ahman Green had rushed for 156 yards. But Sherman, deciding to play the clock and field position, gave the ball back. Then he watched as the Eagles and quarterback Donovan McNabb tied the game in regulation and won in overtime.

The criticism aimed at Sherman seemed a bit more muted than what Martz received. But former NFL defensive back John Dockery said Sherman’s error, if that’s what it was, might have been more egregious.

“They had a back [Green] who was spectacular, a huge offensive line going against a depleted offensive line, and [Sherman] knows if he gets this yard, the game is over,” said Dockery, a sideline reporter for Westwood One radio. “The other variable is, you’re giving the ball back to a gamer like Donovan McNabb, who can change a game by himself.”

That’s exactly what happened. McNabb was terrific down the stretch.

Both coaches had ready explanations.

Martz: “We had just overcome a pretty substantial deficit, and I was concerned about having a protection issue the last time we were down there. I didn’t want to get [quarterback] Marc [Bulger] bumped or a ball tipped. I wanted to give our guys the right to continue to play that game.”

Sherman: “They used a timeout, which I thought would be instrumental in the two-minute drill. They put some big people into the game. I was thinking, ’If we could pin them down …’”

You don’t have to be a rocket scientist or an economics professor to determine Sherman probably should have gone for it. But it helps. David Romer, a professor of economics at Cal-Berkeley, examined the subject of fourth-down decision-making a few years ago and wrote a paper about it. The essence of his findings were, when in doubt, go.

Although Romer focused on situations early in the game, he said Sherman’s chances were even better given the time remaining and field position.

“That’s a straightforward case where you go for it,” he said. “In that particular case, it’s a no-brainer.”

But maybe not under present-day conditions. With job security apparently more tenuous than ever, coaches are walking a tightrope. One slip and it might be over. Bring in a new guy.

“I don’t remember it being as brutal as it is now,” Dockery said. “Owners don’t have any patience. Fans don’t have any patience.”

Said former San Francisco 49ers offensive lineman Randy Cross: “For all the ’I love the game’ stuff, everyone loves having a job. One of the unfortunate things about the coaching profession these days is its transient nature.”

For obvious reasons, the postseason is different from the regular season, which might explain why coaches sometimes do strange things. The margin for error literally is zero. It’s great when Minnesota coach Mike Tice goes for two to win instead of kicking the PAT for overtime, as he did last year. But little was at stake; the Vikings were 3-10 at the time. Playoff pressure is immense.

“I think it affects some people,” said Cross, a CBS analyst. “But I don’t think it affects all of them.”

And not just in the NFL. Even though he lost, Nebraska’s Tom Osborne was practically cited for heroism for going for two points and the win against Miami in the 1983 Orange Bowl, even though a tie would have guaranteed an unbeaten season and the national championship.

On the flip side, Ara Parseghian is forever remembered for playing for the tie when his unbeaten Notre Dame team met unbeaten Michigan State in 1966. In both cases, there was no overtime.

NFL coaches might carry with them, buried in their subconscious, a sense that “I can’t be a gunslinger because I might be gone,” Dockery said. “But you’d better be thick-skinned. You can’t be worried about losing your job. You’re going to lose it anyway, at some point. You might as well let it fly.”

New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick let it fly in Super Bowl XXXVI against St. Louis two years ago. With the game tied 17-17, the Patriots got the ball on their 17-yard line with 1:30 to play. Fox analyst John Madden wasn’t the only one suggesting New England play it safe and get to overtime.

Instead, quarterback Tom Brady came out firing. He passed on every play, and the Patriots reached the Rams 30 before Adam Vinatieri kicked the winning field goal with seven seconds remaining.

That drive reminded Cross of Super Bowl XXIII, San Francisco vs. Cincinnati. The 49ers trailed 16-13 when they took over on their 8 with 3:10 to go. They were 92 yards away. But the Niners had quarterback Joe Montana and receiver Jerry Rice, among others, and it didn’t matter that they had been held to just one touchdown.

“Not if you’ve done it before,” Cross said. “And not if the other team knows you can do it.”

Led by Montana, the Niners moved out of the shadow of the end zone, then into field goal territory. But they didn’t stop there. With 34 seconds left, Montana hit John Taylor over the middle for a 10-yard touchdown.

“It was an amazing drive,” Cross said. “In those situations, you don’t play it safe. The idea is to go for the win.”

But CBS analyst and former New York Giants quarterback Phil Simms said he talked to two current NFL quarterbacks, and both agreed with Martz.

“I thought they should have taken some shots, and I thought for sure they’d say to throw into the end zone,” Simms said. “But they said Martz did the right thing. If you watched the game in its entirety, [the Rams] had to be nervous, not just about the quarterback play but the play off the offensive line. The chance of a ball being tipped, fumbled, a sack, whatever, they thought he did the right thing.”

Regarding Sherman, Simms said, “Myself, I would have gone for it. I would have seen it as an opportunity to win the game. … I’ve talked to some coaches I really admire, and they all say you cannot be afraid to lose the game. When the opportunity presents itself, you’ve just got to go for it and be willing to take what comes after it.”

Good idea. But it must be harder than it looks.