President Bush will arrive in Mexico on Monday bearing the gift of an immigration proposal that is certain to please his host and warm a relationship cooled by the war in Iraq.
While little of substance is expected from the Summit of the Americas scheduled for Monday through Wednesday in Monterrey, both Mr. Bush and Mexican President Vicente Fox hope to use the meeting to boost their political standings.
“The press here in Mexico is treating the meeting as a political gimmick by Bush to court Hispanic voters, and they are probably right,” said George W. Grayson, a professor at the College of William and Mary and an expert on Mexico. “The photo-ops for the two of them are not small potatoes.”
Such an opportunity to restore the “dos amigos” image long cultivated by the two presidents seemed remote just a week ago.
Mexico has been a staunch ally in the war on terror, stepping up security measures at the behest of Mr. Bush. But when the United States sought support for the war in Iraq through Mexico’s seat on the United Nations Security Council, Mr. Fox refused.
Cooperation with the United States on homeland security has come at a political cost to Mr. Fox, said Armand Peschard-Sverdrup, director of the Mexico Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, explaining that Mr. Fox’s detractors have tried to portray him as doing Mr. Bush’s bidding.
But Mr. Bush’s proposal allowing millions of illegal immigrants in the United States — about half from Mexico — to apply for immediate legal working status temporarily should be more than enough to patch the personal and political relationship between the two men, Mr. Peschard-Sverdrup said.
“This is the beginning of the relationship getting back on track,” Mr. Peschard-Sverdrup said.
Mr. Grayson said Mr. Fox didn’t get “the whole enchilada” on immigration, and the Mexican public is not expecting much more than what Mr. Bush proposed. Indeed, he said, many expect Congress to reject Mr. Bush’s proposals outright.
“Many don’t see the legislation getting to first base in Congress,” Mr. Grayson said. “For once, the press down here has it nailed in that it is an election-year ploy.”
Nonetheless, Mr. Bush’s visit and proposal announcement Wednesday has important political ramifications for both men.
The Mexican president praised Mr. Bush’s plan, saying it as an achievement of his own administration. Mr. Fox, however, also said he is not entirely satisfied with the temporary worker program.
“We’re going for more. We’re going for more,” Mr. Fox told reporters in Mexico City on Wednesday, adding that he will continue to work on a comprehensive immigration treaty with the United States.
Mr. Fox will congratulate the president for what amounts to bold leadership on immigration, Mr. Peschard-Sverdrup said, predicting a love fest between the two men with politics back on the front burner.
“Fox has an incredible amount of appeal with Mexican-Americans, and that could help President Bush to be seen with him,” Mr. Peschard-Sverdrup said. “From a political standpoint, it’s a win-win.”
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