Uncharted jobs terrain

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The July 2 jobs report ruined President Bush's holiday. June's payroll job growth dropped to 112,000, less than half the average growth over the previous several months.

While commentators focused on the aggregate number, the real bad news is U.S. job growth continues to be concentrated in nontradable domestic services that do not face global competition.

Where are the June jobs?

This June's graduating class from America's thousands of colleges and universities competed for 4,000 jobs in legal services, 3,000 accounting jobs, 4,000 architectural and engineering jobs, 6,000 jobs in computer systems design and related, 5,000 jobs in management and technical consulting, 6,000 jobs in financial activities, 7,000 jobs in educational services, and 11,000 jobs in membership associations and organizations.

Those who didn't land one of these few jobs competed against the unskilled for 13,000 jobs making beds, serving food and waiting bar; for 11,000 jobs in child day care; 11,000 jobs in ambulatory health care services; 6,000 jobs in hospitals; 12,000 temporary help jobs; 6,000 jobs as couriers and messengers; 3,000 jobs in warehousing and storage; 3,000 jobs in ground passenger transportation; and 6,000 jobs driving trucks.

With the U.S. current account deficit running $1.1 million per minute in the first quarter of 2004, U.S. consumption is very dependent on the global economy. U.S. job growth, however, is disconnected from the global economy. The United States is now dependent on imports for advanced technology products as well as for manufacturing goods and is experiencing a declining trade surplus in services.

Charles McMillion of MBG Information Services in D.C. reports a new move by the U.S. economy into uncharted territory. Total hours worked for nonmanagerial workers have fallen during the current recovery. There are 0.9 percent fewer total hours worked by private nonmanagerial workers in June 2004 than in November 2001, when the current "recovery" began. Hours worked in the manufacturing sector have declined 7.7 percent.

Since January 2001, when Mr. Bush was inaugurated, non-managerial private sector hours worked have declined 4 percent, and manufacturing hours worked have declined 17.2 percent.

Declining hours worked during economic recovery is unprecedented. Republican apologists and free market ideologues attribute the decline in hours worked to productivity gains. However, the unprecedented decline appears to reflect job displacement from the growth in net imports caused by the movement of U.S. production offshore and by outsourcing.

While the U.S. economy ceases to provide employment growth in tradable goods and services, Stephen Roach at Morgan Stanley reports the industry share of Chinese gross domestic product rose from 41.6 percent in 1990 to 52.3 percent in 2003, accounting for 54 percent of the growth in China's GDP over the period.