A sure thing?

Washington Capitals general manager George McPhee had the unreadable expression of a poker player trying to hide a straight flush.

He was being coy, and when you have the best hand — in this case, the first overall pick in next month’s amateur draft — you don’t want to tip off anyone.

“Have you seen this Russian kid in person?” McPhee was asked.

“Who?” he replied, his expression unchanged.

Who?

Who is McPhee trying to fool?

Alexander Ovechkin, the 18-year-old Russian in question, is undeniably the best player in this year’s draft. The Moscow-born wing has an amazing degree of maturity, skill, speed and skating ability. No other player in this draft class or any recent class is even close. In fact, scouts, reporters, agents and other general managers say he is the “total package” — possibly the best player available since Mario Lemieux came out in 1984.

You could get longer odds on Smarty Jones winning the Belmont Stakes than the Caps selecting Ovechkin with the first pick, and yet McPhee has to make it seem plausible Washington might consider someone else when it picks June26 in Raleigh, N.C.

He refuses to discuss individuals because he claims there are so many variables involved. And he might be right.

“The hockey graveyard is full [of can’t-miss prospects],” he said. Eight years ago the Caps took Alexandre Volchkov with the fourth pick overall. He was the best forward available, despite a checkered past, and he was too big a talent to pass on.

They should have. Volchkov played only three NHL games in his career and is now somewhere in the Russian outback playing for a bush league team.

McPhee will preside over what could be the most important draft in Caps history. In a cost-cutting measure, the team sent its most talented skaters to other clubs for a collection of young prospects — some of them still unsigned. The team desperately needs help everywhere — except goal — if it hopes to be competitive next season. That’s why so much attention is being paid to this pick, whether the Caps take Ovechkin or one of the two or three other pedigree picks or make a blockbuster trade.

If they select the Russian wing and he is a bust or a prima donna, the Caps will have wasted an opportunity to get a cornerstone player who can help rebuild the franchise quickly. If he is everything advertised or even shows promise he might be that player someday, the Caps might be well on their way to turning around.

With attendance and on-ice talent both at a trickle and the Jaromir Jagr fiasco in the recent past, the marketing department needs something to sell other than a nameless roster and slightly lower ticket prices. The status of McPhee and his staff also could depend on the outcome of the draft. The general manager, heading into his eighth season, will be a hero if Ovechkin comes close to approaching Lemieux status and could be out of a job if the wing performs below expectations.

Privately, the Caps hope Ovechkin can do for this franchise what Lemieux did for Pittsburgh — create hockey interest in an area badly in need of a positive hockey experience. Lemieux became one of the best players in the sport’s history and was the leader of two Stanley Cup-winning teams.

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