BATON ROUGE, La. — If elected Tuesday, Republican U.S. Rep. David Vitter would become the first Republican senator from this state since Reconstruction, and it would be a major gain for his party in the closely split Senate.
Louisianans, however, may not know on Tuesday who their next senator will be. Under the state’s open primary, Mr. Vitter is on the ballot with four Democrats and two independents. If no one receives a majority, there will a runoff Dec. 4 between the top two candidates.
The seat is held by retiring Democrat John B. Breaux.
As the sole Republican, Mr. Vitter has a strong plurality in most polls and an outright majority in one. The real suspense on Tuesday is whether he will win a majority or, if not, which of the two strongest Democratic contenders will face him in the runoff. They are U.S. Rep. Chris John and state Treasurer John Kennedy.
Running a distant fourth in the polls is Democrat Arthur Morrell, a black state representative from New Orleans who could play the role of spoiler by siphoning black votes from Mr. Kennedy or Mr. John. Black voters make up 27 percent of the state’s electorate.
A poll released Wednesday by Southeastern Louisiana University gave Mr. Vitter 43 percent, Mr. John 18 percent and Mr. Kennedy 10 percent.
Another, conducted Oct. 15-25 by Verne Kennedy Associates, showed Mr. Vitter with 51 percent, Mr. John with 17 percent and Mr. Kennedy with 15 percent.
New Orleans pollster Ed Renwick said his own poll, taken Oct. 12-15, gave Mr. Vitter 41 percent, Mr. Kennedy 19 percent and Mr. John 17 percent.
Mr. John’s ad campaigns have been aimed not at Mr. Kennedy, whom he needs to beat Tuesday, but at Mr. Vitter.
“Kennedy is certainly the threat to John,” Mr. Renwick said.
Mr. John’s recent rise may stem from an endorsement last week by the popular Mr. Breaux.
Because Mr. John and Mr. Vitter are not that far apart philosophically, their jabs at each other in forums and debates and in commercials have become increasingly personal.
In a forum last week in Lafayette, Mr. John accused Mr. Vitter of voting against funding for control of coastal erosion, a sensitive issue here. “You voted with the party bosses, not Louisiana, and the list goes on and on,” Mr. John said.
“I’m sure your list can go on and on because you’re lying about votes,” Mr. Vitter retorted.
Bernie Pinsonat, a pollster with Southern Media Research in Baton Rouge, said Mr. Vitter could benefit from President Bush’s coattails. He predicted Mr. Bush would carry Louisiana by “eight to 12” percentage points.
Mr. Pinsonat said his latest poll showed Mr. Vitter with 43 percent: but said he has a “good shot” at winning outright on Tuesday.
“He’s getting 57 percent of the white vote,” Mr. Pinsonat said. “Kennedy and John are fighting over blacks, but neither one is getting more than 20 percent of the white vote. I’m showing 51 percent of undecided whites leaning toward Vitter. If that goes up to 57 percent, then he’s looking at 52 percent [on Tuesday].”
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