Inside Politics

Kerry’s task

“The current state of the 2004 presidential race does not favor Sen. John Kerry, no matter what utterly unconvincing spin Democratic strategists continue to offer,” political analyst Stuart Rothenberg writes in Roll Call.

“National polls show President Bush holding a narrow lead, and the two presidential campaigns are focusing their advertising on a little more than a dozen states, including Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Iowa, Michigan, Maine and Wisconsin, all of which went for Al Gore in 2000. The race is close, but it isn’t even,” Mr. Rothenberg said.

“The Massachusetts Democrat will lose in November unless he changes the nature of the contest. And he will have an opportunity to do so during the three presidential debates, when he must accomplish two things.

“First, Kerry must return the focus of the election to Bush. Throughout much of the spring and early summer, the race was about the president and his performance in office. That’s when Bush was in trouble. During August and at the GOP convention, Republicans were successful in making Kerry the issue, and particularly in raising questions about his consistency and instincts. …

“Second, and of greatest importance, Kerry must alter the way voters now see the war in Iraq,” which they view as part of the larger war on terror.

The market speaks

“In case Democrats didn’t have enough jitters, John Kerry is kerplunking like a stone in the Iowa Political Futures Market — a novel but remarkably accurate predictor that [Wednesday] put the odds of President Bush’s re-election at more than 60 percent,” the New York Post’s Deborah Orin writes.

“The market late [Wednesday] was predicting a Bush win with 52.7 percent of the popular vote to 47 percent for Kerry,” Miss Orin said.

“In all, 64.8 percent of traders were betting on a Bush win — a dramatic switch from just a month ago when the odds were even on Bush and Kerry.

” ‘Bush has broken out substantially in the last few days. It could be a combination of Kerry’s speech on Iraq, Bush’s speech to the U.N. and even the CBS Dan Rather story imploding,’ said University of Iowa business dean Bob Forsythe, who oversees the market.

” ‘Our traders seem to be indicating that not only is Bush ahead, but he may win by a substantial margin,’ added Forsythe, an undecided voter.

“The market was set up in 1988, and in every election since then, its vote-share predictions have bested most polls and average within 1.37 percentage points of the popular vote. There’s a separate winner-take-all market.

“Forsythe has more bad news for Democrats who think Kerry’s angry anti-Iraq-war speech Monday marked a positive turning point: ‘Not at all. If anything, things have gotten worse for him.’ ”

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