The Iraq mantra

If you keep repeating something long enough, though it might not be entirely correct, one of two developments is likely: The first is you eventually start believing your own mantra: Every time you say it, the phrase acquires more meaning. Second, in the long run, the odds are that your predictions, at least in part, will come true.

The current situation in Iraq is a good example. The Bush administration keeps saying the war in Iraq is being won, we are making great strides, U.S. ground forces have the upper hand in the insurgency and Iraq is much better off without Saddam Hussein leading it.

The trick in spreading information (and sometimes disinformation) is to meld the points you want to get across with truths — hard, proven facts — so the two blend. It’s the oldest trick in the public-relations book.

For example, Iraq being better off without Saddam is not at issue. No one contests that, except maybe some hard-core Ba’ath loyalists. Hardly anyone will disagree, or will lament Saddam’s departure. That Iraq held free and relatively fair elections is also not in dispute. But to claim the country as a whole is better off now is somewhat an exaggeration.

With few exceptions, most will agree Iraq has moved ahead in the right direction toward building a better future based on democratic foundations. It is developing its institutions based on the rule of law. Given Iraqis’ inexperience in that field, it may take a while longer for them to get their act together.

What is happening in Iraq is nothing short of astounding. Think about it a moment. A Kurdish president, the first ever in an Arab country; a Shi’ite prime minister, the first ever in modern Iraq; and the once all-powerful Sunnis now relegated to third place in the hierarchical and political pecking order. Is the Middle East changing? Iraq certainly is.

Meanwhile, the “simple things” that help make life better continue to perturb daily chores. Gasoline shortages — in the country with the world’s second-largest oil reserves — continue to wreak havoc. Electricity shortages afflict the country, contributing to popular irritation with Iraq’s leaders and with the occupation, which they ultimately hold responsible. Lack of security and continued attacks, car bombings and targeted killing of Iraqi security forces does little to help calm the citizens.

Political uncertainty should surprise no one. It is more surprising the Iraqis have largely limited their disagreements to throwing temper tantrums in the parliament.

Despite their mounting differences, Iraqi politicians have avoided spilling their squabbles onto the streets, shantytowns and slums around Baghdad and other cities. Were that not so, weapons would have quickly replaced words.

The insurgency seems to be getting more organized. But most Iraqis have not joined the resistance. Instead, those fighting the occupation and the new Iraqi government are Islamist militants associated with al Qaeda and advocates of a Wahhabi theocracy. There remnants of the Ba’ath Party and of Saddam’s disbanded military and Fedayeen. But some Sunnis also feel they must make a point with violence. Old habits die hard.

That Iraqis remain unable to agree on a new government three months after the elections also is excusable in a country unfamiliar with the democratic process’ intricacies and complexities. But it is an exaggeration to repeatedly insist all is well. It is the political equivalent of brushing dirt under a rug.

Lately, the Iraqi insurgency seems bolder, attacking in broad daylight and apparently walking away with impunity.

The downing of a Bulgarian Mi-8 helicopter last week shows just how brash the insurgency now is. Not only did militants shoot down the helicopter, they took their time videotaping the attack and showed the tape on an Islamic Internet Web site.

The footage shows insurgents, some in traditional Iraqi garb and some carrying AK-47s as they reach the crash site before security forces. The insurgents find a Bulgarian crewmember alive and execute him in cold blood. These circumstances make one wonder just how much territory the coalition truly controls outside the heavily fortified and militarized Green Zone.

Iraq is neither safe nor stable today despite what Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld would like the rest of the country and world to believe. In fact, the attacks against the U.S. and Iraqi forces have become bolder.

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