Creating an Asian alliance

Last month, The Washington Times’ Bill Gertz reported on China’s massive efforts to modernize its military with advanced weapons and technology thefts. This week, the Pentagon’s annual report to Congress on the Chinese military confirms those reports. One approach to this threat is creation of an Asian defense alliance.

China’s stated goal is to be able to invade Taiwan, while inflicting major damage on intervening U.S. forces. This was expanded last week in a statement by Chinese Maj. Gen. Zhu Chenghu that Beijing should use nuclear weapons against the U.S. if it intervenes in a conflict over Taiwan, adding, “Hundreds of [American] cities will be destroyed.” A Foreign Ministry spokesman refused to retract the statement.

The best response to this audacious provocation is to restate the U.S. commitment to defend Taiwan if attacked, while moving to create an Asian alliance against Chinese aggression. Such an alliance already is emerging as Japan’s Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi moves away from pacifism to improve Northeast Asian defense in cooperation with Washington.

Tokyo was shocked out of its complacency by North Korea’s launch of a missile over Japan in 1998 and the North’s subsequent statement it had nuclear weapons.

Japanese public opinion boiled over when North Korea admitted kidnapping Japanese citizens and a Chinese submarine intruded in Japanese waters. As a result Japan upgraded its defenses, including increased cooperation with the U.S. on sea patrols and missile defenses and a promise to help defend Taiwan.

Despite wishful thinking by those who keep hoping China will restrain North Korea, the 55-year bond between the communist regimes, forged in blood in the Korean War, is stronger than ever. China supports the goal of North Korea’s rulers to hang on to power, while promising Washington it will press the North on its nuclear weapons. The quid pro quo Beijing wants is Washington to stop supporting Taiwan. But abandoning the Taiwan Relations Act is non-negotiable.

Just as the policy of containment worked against the Soviet Union, a defensive alliance against China can help. There never will be an Asian NATO because of wide differences between countries in the area. But a loose defensive alliance centered on the first island chain is developing.

The “first island chain” runs from the Aleutians through Japan, South Korea, Okinawa, Taiwan and the Philippines to Singapore. It is backed by forces on Guam and Hawaii, and what Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice calls America’s “significant” deterrence power. A U.S.-led defense of the first island chain, supported by Australia, India, Thailand and Indonesia, would be a major obstacle to Beijing’s threats of aggression.

Singapore is expanding its security ties with the U.S., and the administration is working hard to win the support of India, a nuclear power with ballistic missiles that are being extended in range to reach most of China.

Long an adversary of China (with which it fought a border war in 1962), India was sanctioned by the Clinton administration for testing nuclear weapons in 1998. But President Bush reversed that approach and last month signed a defense pact with India.

Administration China policy is torn between desire for unlimited trade with the world’s most populous country and the need to deter China’s militarists from starting a war over Taiwan.

But Beijing is confronting this country on a wide front. Former Ambassador to China James Lilley says Beijing is pursuing a comprehensive national policy of advancing its interests through military, political, economic and cultural means.

The economic means have led to a huge trade deficit with China that is worsening. In May, the deficit with China was $15.8 billion, more than double that with Japan. Imports of Chinese clothing and textiles in the first five months are up 53.6 percent over last year. Beijing pegs its currency at artificial rates to maintain an export advantage and rejects calls to revalue the renminbi to create a more balanced playing field.

Legislation pending in Congress with 67 senators’ support would impose a 271/2 percent tariff on Chinese goods. The White House has asked Congress to wait, in the belief China will revalue its currency prior to the planned September visit of President Hu Jintao to Washington. But if Beijing does not do something to improve the trade imbalance, Congress must act.

President Bush should remind President Hu this country is committed to defend Taiwan against use of force. That commitment should be backed by regional and national missile defenses, and an Asian alliance strong enough to discourage the hawks in Beijing.

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