Insurgents have failed to achieve their goal of stopping the political process in Iraq, says a Pentagon report, but the foreign terrorists and Sunni Muslim saboteurs remain a potent force almost 28 months after dictator Saddam Hussein’s ouster.
Labeled the “Iraq Metrics Report,” the 23 pages of data and narration seek to measure progress in Iraq with lists of economic, political and military statistics. To that end, the report to Congress concludes that Iraq remains on track to approve a constitution in October and elect a permanent government this December.
But its security forces, on which an eventual U.S. withdrawal depends, are still spotty.
The report corrects an impression that Iraqi forces performed well in the November battle for insurgent stronghold Fallujah, when Marines and U.S. soldiers captured the city building by building.
“Ministry of Defense forces did not perform well in Fallujah. Several battalions collapsed,” the report states. “Absent-without-leave (AWOL) rates among regular army units were in double digits and remained so for the rest of the year.”
AWOL rates are better today, but when Iraqi units go into battle or relocate, the absenteeism rates surges, the report said.
“One noteworthy strategic indicator of progress toward a stable security environment has been the inability of insurgents to derail the political process and timeline,” says the report, which was required by Congress for the first time in a bill funding the war in Iraq and Afghanistan. “To do so is the strategic objective of the insurgents, and they are failing to achieve it.”
The report shows militants have maintained a robust level of deadly attacks, inflicting about 400 to 500 a week since the first post-Saddam elections in January.
Most recently, foreign fighters have dispatched suicide bombers to kill Iraqi civilians, including women and children.
The foreign fighters are led by Jordanian-born Abu Musab Zarqawi, whose goal is to establish harsh Islamic rule in Iraq. The Iraqi Sunnis are led by former Saddam regime figures who want to return to Ba’ath Party rule.
“The insurgents do … remain capable, adaptable, and intent on carrying out attacks against Iraqi civilians and officials as well as security forces,” the report says. “Insurgents share a goal of expelling the coalition from Iraq and destabilizing and de-legitimating the Iraqi government.”
On the economic front, unemployment remains high at 28 percent and attacks continue to disrupt oil and electricity production.
“But we think there is some positive news as well,” said Peter Rodman, assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs. “We see business formation. We see a lot of economic activity as we see the beginnings of a modern market economy.”
The key to an eventual U.S. withdrawal is to build up an Iraqi police and military force that can fight the insurgents on its own.
The report’s secret addendum spells out progress in more detail by giving combat-readiness statistics. The Iraqi force exceeds 170,000, augmented an American presence of 138,000 troops.
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