Why Britain will stay steady

LONDON.

Question: What happens in politics when an irresistible force meets an immovable object? Answer: An innocent Brazilian is shot by nice London “Bobbies.”

To explain the above exchange, the irresistible force is Muslim terrorism in Britain and the immovable force is democratic British public opinion. Two commonplaces of antiterrorist scholarship are (a) a terrorist movement is hard to defeat in proportion to its support among the population, and (b) terrorism cannot gain its objectives against the firm convictions of a majority in a democracy.

What therefore happens if terrorism is supported by a substantial minority of the population for causes strongly opposed by the majority? We may be about to find out from Britain after the second spate of attempted bombings.

Take, first, the terrorism of radical Islamists. It is conventional to say — I have often advanced this point myself — terrorism is supported by only a tiny percentage of British Muslims. This comforting statement, however, is undermined by the recent YouGov survey of British Muslims for the London Daily Telegraph. Among its findings:

(1) Six percent of British Muslims believe the bombings in London were justified — and another 6 percent “don’t know” if they were justified. Six percent seems a small number, but it represents 100,000 people.

(2) Ten percent of British Muslims feel “not at all loyal” to the country, and another 6 percent feel “not very loyal.”

(3) Fifty-six percent of British Muslims “can understand” why the bombers behaved as they did.

(4) Thirty-one percent of British Muslims feel Western society is decadent and immoral and Muslims should seek to end it “by nonviolent means.” One percent (or 16,000 people) believe it should be ended “if necessary by violence.”

(5) Forty-one percent think most Muslims would be reluctant to tell the police about anything suspicious.

In reply to almost all the questions, moreover, quite large percentages give the answer “don’t know.” Eleven percent, for instance, don’t know if they would seek to end Western society, and if so whether they do it “by violence.” We should probably add some of their numbers to the percentages of those giving the most hostile and threatening replies.

So the overall picture is very disturbing indeed: Most British Muslims are hostile to radical Islamist terrorism. But quite large percentages sympathize with the bombers’ opinions, are hostile to Britain and would be reluctant to cooperate with the authorities in fighting terrorism. And minorities — small but far from “tiny” — would actively assist the terrorists.

That is the classic picture of a population providing a warm sea for the terrorists to swim in. Irish Republican Army terrorism was waged more than two decades by an estimated 2 percent of the Catholic population with the active support of about 10 percent and the occasional tolerance of another 20 percent.

Yet it is worth reminding ourselves IRA terrorism failed in its objectives because the democratic majority of the entire Northern Irish population (i.e., all the Protestants and about a third of the Catholics) bitterly opposed them.

Indeed, terrorism has almost never prevailed where opposed by most of the local population — Greece, Malayasia, the Philippines, Argentina, Uruguay and Israel. Democracy is the immovable object against which it founders. London is, so to speak, an object lesson in this truth.

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