Dynamic of war

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In a single news cycle:

• The chief of the Defense Intelligence Agency tells the Senate Armed Services Committee North Korea has the wherewithal to stick a nuclear device in the nose cone of a three-stage, long-range missile that can reach Hawaii and Alaska.

• The Bush administration sells to Israel for $30 million 100 bunker-busting bombs clearly designed as a signal to Iran it may be next on the hit list unless it ceases and desists its quest for nuclear power.

• Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld pleads with Congress for funds to research nuclear bunker-busters to get at weapons of mass destruction facilities hidden underground (presumably in Iran and North Korea);

• The Pentagon, according to calculated leaks, is polishing a contingency plan for 240 air strikes over three days, including Tomahawk cruise missiles, to set Iran's nuclear plans back 10 years.

• Scott Ritter, the controversial ex-Marine turned UNSCOM weapons inspector in Iraq, who correctly predicted there were no WMD in Saddam's arsenal, says the plan to bomb Iran's widely scattered nuclear installations has been approved by President Bush. Mr. Ritter predicts the massive air attack against Iran's nuclear infrastructure will take place next June.

Mr. Bush has pledged Iran will not be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon. This ancient civilization of 70 million people, ruled by a theocracy of aging clerics since 1979, has been doing just that for the last 18 years. Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan, Pakistan's Dr. Strangelove, made his first million or two by midwifing Iran's bid to become the world's ninth nuclear power. It is now positioned for 10th place after North Korea.

The Bush administration, loath to talk directly to nuclear pretenders, tasked the Europe Union's three major powers -- the United Kingdom, Germany and France -- to play both hardball and softball to persuade Iran to give up its quest. So far, no luck, except for Iran's temporary moratorium on enriching uranium to weapons-grade quality. The economic incentives are judged derisory by Iran and the disincentives -- pre-emptive U.S. or Israeli air strikes -- lack credibility.

Iran knows the United States knows it could make life hell for U.S. objectives in Iraq. Iran also has a regional apparatus of terrorist sleeper cells that can be activated quickly. Hezbollah's several thousand strong militia is armed and funded by Iran.

Iran has an 800-mile mountainous border with Iraq, largely unguarded. Countless thousands have moved into Iraq since the United States toppled Saddam Hussein's regime in April 2003. For years, Islamist terrorists infiltrated Iraq from Iran, with the blessing of the mullahs, smuggling weapons to anti-Saddam Kurds. When Kurdish peshmerga fighters, backed by U.S. Special Forces, attacked Ansar al-Islam, an al Qaeda affiliate, in the opening phase of Operation Iraqi Freedom, hundreds of guerrillas fled back into Iran.