Filibuster battle altering ‘08 presidential landscape

Last week’s Senate compromise that averted a showdown over filibustered judicial nominees was actually the opening salvo of the 2008 presidential campaign, several veteran political observers say.

The unexpected consequence of the filibuster compromise is to give a boost to the presidential prospects of Sen. George Allen, Virginia Republican.

“Allen was very vocal in support of changing the rules to eliminate the filibuster of judicial nominees and took the right position in condemning the compromise,” said Free Congress Foundation President Paul M. Weyrich.

Conservatives have strongly condemned the compromise as a politically motivated gambit by Arizona Sen. John McCain, key Republican broker in the deal that ensured confirmation of three of President Bush’s nominees to federal appeals courts.

“George Allen is helped to the extent that the other potential [Republican] nomination competitors are not helped,” said David Keene, chairman of the American Conservative Union. “Allen was on the right side and said the right things.”

The compromise — supported by six other Republican senators — negated Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist’s demand for up-or-down votes on all of the Bush nominees. Mr. Frist, Tennessee Republican, is an early favorite of many religious and social conservatives looking ahead to the 2008 presidential campaign.

With Mr. McCain alienating the conservatives who dominate Republican primary voting, and by making Mr. Frist look like an ineffective leader, the filibuster compromise helped Mr. Allen by default.

“McCain is now dead meat, and Frist is hurt,” said Mr. Weyrich.

Mr. McCain was Mr. Bush’s chief rival for the 2000 Republican presidential nomination and had been seen as the leading contender for 2008, since Vice President Dick Cheney has said he will not seek the presidency. But Mr. McCain’s central role in crafting the compromise could prove fatal to his hopes.

“Conservatives who are unhappy with this compromise are going to blame McCain, not Frist,” said Richard Land, president of the Southern Baptist Convention’s Ethics & Religious Liberty Commission.

Morton Blackwell, a Virginia Republican and member of the national party’s executive committee, also said Mr. McCain will be the chief target of Republican wrath. “Nobody in his right mind could blame Frist for the actions of John McCain, who has further alienated our party’s voter base,” he said.

Mr. Frist’s base of support remains strong, said Family Research Council President Tony Perkins. “I don’t think Frist is wounded — betrayed by McCain and a few of his other Republican senators, but not wounded, not among social conservatives,” he said.

But Mr. Keene said the compromise did serious damage to Mr. Frist’s credibility.

“Frist is the loser in that he has demonstrated an inability to hold his own majority together,” said Mr. Keene. “But out in the country and among the Republican base, he will be viewed as someone who at least tried.”

“Frist is hurt to the extent he had an opportunity to be seen as a hero to the conservative movement and that opportunity was taken away from him by John McCain,” said Mr. Weyrich.

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