Generals reassess enemy in Iraq

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The rising optimism that enveloped the Pentagon last spring about victory in Iraq has given way to more sober assessments that the insurgency will stay somewhat robust for months or years to come.

Spot interviews with mid- and senior-level military personnel reveal a grudging acknowledgement that the two-prong enemy -- Abu Musab Zarqawi's foreign terrorists and Saddam Hussein loyalists -- remains potent despite battles in which scores of fighters are killed or captured.

A senior Pentagon official who monitors daily intelligence reports on Iraq was asked whether the U.S. is winning.

"Good question," the official said. "It's open to discussion." The official spoke as the death toll among U.S. troops topped the 1,900 mark.

The insurgency's resilience is one reason the Bush administration shifted its message this summer, the source said. The new talking point became that the U.S. alone cannot defeat the insurgents and that the Iraqi people in the end must do the job.

Yet inside the Pentagon, and among field commanders, there is a firm belief that Zarqawi is growing desperate.

He is increasing attacks on Shi'ite markets, mosques and neighborhoods to try to incite a civil war between Shi'ite Muslims and dethroned Sunnis, who ran Iraq under Saddam's rule. But in the process, Zarqawi is alienating the very Shi'ites who, like the terror master, want American troops out now.

"You don't see Zarqawi attacking Americans," said a special-operations officer who has debriefed commandos returning from Iraq. "He is so desperate and twisted he's attacking Shi'ites."

A second Pentagon official said intelligence reports show that militant Shi'ites increasingly see Zarqawi as an enemy, not an ally.

"Shi'ites are rapidly concluding that al Qaeda is serving no purpose," the official said. "I read the intelligence. Shi'ites are saying, 'If you want the Americans out, get rid of al Qaeda.' It seems to be turning against [Zarqawi]."