Connecticut results mean little for national direction

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Liberal anti-war voters and bloggers angry about Iraq widely claimed victory yesterday after the defeat of Sen. Joe Lieberman in Connecticut's Democratic primary, but the state is unpredictable and not indicative of the rest of the country.

"Connecticut is far from a bellwether state," said Donald Green, a Yale political science professor. "And a Democratic primary in Connecticut is far from representing Connecticut."

Polls done before and after Tuesday showed that nearly 80 percent of the primary election voters oppose the war. That sentiment allowed Ned Lamont to transform from no-name candidate to national darling of the anti-war crowd and beat the hawkish three-term incumbent.

Lamont voters, dubbed "latte liberals" by some, were educated and wealthy. Men favored him over Mr. Lieberman, the 2000 Democratic vice-presidential nominee.

Voters said Mr. Lieberman's support of President Bush and the war was the biggest factor in choosing his opponent, and many Lamont voters said they were casting a vote "against Lieberman," according to polls.

Despite a new CNN poll showing that 60 percent of the nation now opposes the war, others argue that Connecticut is a unique state that has voted blue, red and purple depending on the issue and the office at stake.

"The lesson is not something you can stretch too far beyond Connecticut. All politics really is local," said Scott McLean, chairman of the political science department at Quinnipiac University in Connecticut.

Historically, Connecticut voters have been finicky in who they've backed. Mr. Green calls his state "wobbly," noting its habit of nominating Democrats who go on to lose statewide office.

The state has chosen Democrats in presidential elections since 1992, but had backed the Republican in all White House contests since 1972. Its governor and three of its five House representatives are Republicans, but Democrats control its state legislature. The last governor was a Republican, and before that, third-party candidate Lowell P. Weicker Jr. was the state's chief executive.

Mr. Bush's approval rating in Connecticut is one of the lowest in the nation -- 27 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll taken in late July.